NSW - GUSTY WEATHER OVER THE SOUTH, RAIN THURSDAY FOR SOME - WIDESPREAD RAIN NEXT WEEK.

The roller coaster ride of contrasting temperatures across the nation continues, and southern NSW is feeling that more than anywhere with troughs and fronts passing through in recent days. The strongest system on the board is still expected to sweep through the region from Thursday with patchy rainfall for southern areas ahead of a drier and milder Friday.


The next change developing is expected over the weekend. Widespread rain developing over inland portions of SA and the NT may begin to enter the state's west from Saturday afternoon or evening.


Lets take a look

Rainfall for the next 10 days

Rainfall is expected to be more concentrated over southern areas of the state with the next 2 systems. The passage of a trough tonight may spark a few showers and thunderstorms running along the VIC border and into the southeast districts. Then another system passing through Wednesday afternoon or evening has a greater ability to produce widespread rainfall across the state. The best of it again falling through southeast areas. Another stronger and more dynamic trough looks likely to spread statewide rainfall from Saturday night through Sunday and into next week. That has the hallmarks of being quite a decent producer of rainfall.

GFS DATA SET HAS HAD A MAJOR ERROR AND IS CURRENTLY STUCK - SO I AM DISREGARDING THE DATA SET FOR 00Z.


Euro 00z - Surface Pressure Pattern and Rainfall Distribution - Next 10 days

The modelling is still unchanged in the short term, we have that cold front passing through southeast Australia tonight bringing scattered showers and a few storms as forecast and showers moving into the SWLD of WA. That front will race across the Bight and move into SA Wednesday with showers developing, more widespread as the system rolls through the southeast states. Part of an upper trough accompanying the system is expected to hang back over the interior parts of the nation and will link up with another shot of moisture drawn in from the north and widespread showers and storms are likely to form this weekend into next week. The rain and storm event could be quite heavy over QLD, NSW or VIC coming up in about a week's time. The west likely to dry out under a ridge from mid week for a while. Over the north the hot weather is expected to continue this week with an upper high but the odd pop up storm for those lucky few over northern NT and QLD.

Euro 00z - Precipitable Water Anomalies - Next 10 days

You can see that recycling of the moisture throughout the nation later this week as the lack of southwest winds can flush the moisture out now, and more moisture is expected to sweep in from the northern tropics into the interior producing widespread showers and storms. That pattern likely to ramp up over the weekend into next week, continuing to increase rainfall chances over the northern and eastern states. Out west, some drier weather is expected to sweep in from the west under a high, but another impulse of moisture is expected to be drawn in from the Indian Ocean, which could increase the risk of showers and storms after this period. For SA, the outback through the north and east could do very well with the weekend system, with the Ag areas once again being too far south but will keep watching trends.

Euro 00z - Rainfall Accumulation - Next 10 days

Rainfall, no change from this morning, widespread falls over southeastern, eastern and central areas of the nation thanks to deepening inland troughs and easterly winds. Over the tropics, you will get some more scattered falls developing thanks to weaker upper heights making room for more convection. The west, you are turning dry with high pressure settling but for you in SA, the weather is tricky to forecast, better rainfall the further north you go (don't often say that) and not too bad over the eastern border regions, but the further west you go, it could be pretty lean.

A closer look in

More details coming up on rainfall and the full model spread tonight, and my analysis after 9pm EDST.






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