NSW - GENERALLY FINE ON MONDAY BUT RAIN INCREASING FROM TUESDAY

No real change in the guidance from where we left off during Friday and through the weekend wraps, the timing and coverage of rainfall has not changed, the only rule to remember;


CONVECTIVE RAINFALL - IE THUNDERSTORMS - MEANS UNEVEN DISTRIBUTION OF RAINFALL. NO ONE CAN TELL YOU AHEAD OF TIME WHERE STORMS WILL FORM, BUT KNOW THAT THEY WILL BE ABOUT!


Lets take a look at the latest video.

Rainfall for the next 10 days

Rainfall again is largely unchanged from this mornings update. We will see a higher degree of confidence on the second system later this week, but heavy rainfall with this first system could be a MODERATE to HIGH impact over inland parts of NSW and into VIC as well. Some of the falls could well exceed 100mm this week in some locations, even in the zones in the 25-40mm range with thunderstorms so be weather aware over the coming few days and pay attention to forecasts.

Central West

Tristate Border/Northwest

Southeast NSW and Riverina and the ACT.

Northern NSW

Southwest NSW

Severe weather

Thunderstorms will likely creep into far northern parts of NSW during Monday evening, but one or two only at most. The better coverage comes on Tuesday which could be quite an active day with severe weather potential. More on that tomorrow.

Flood Risk Wednesday through Friday

The Riverine Flood Risk is a a MODERATE risk for large areas of the divide and points west, in areas that have already seen flooding during the past few weeks and months. A heads up for those areas that are prone to flooding. This chart will be updated on Monday.

DATA


Euro 00z - Surface Pressure Pattern and Rainfall Distribution - Next 10 Days

Pressure pattern is largely unchanged from this morning and indeed from our last major update yesterday. The weather is largely dominated by areas of low pressure and copious moisture returning via easterly winds over eastern Australia and the Indian Ocean with the west coast trough. This likely to converge over the eastern and southern inland of Australia for the best part of this week. Another system is likely to move in from the west of the nation later this week and this sweep into SA and then the eastern states later in the period. Up north it is becoming unsettled with the traditional shift towards the wet season and build up conditions. This will likely be the best opportunity for rainfall for many areas in some cases for months.

Euro 00z - Precipitable Water Anomalies - Next 10 Days

You can see the moisture move back through the nation bringing up rainfall chances from tomorrow and really right through the coming 2 weeks. Needless to say, marrying this parameter with the pressure pattern, we have three major events on the board if you look off the GFS (refer to the video) and two events on the Euro which carry a higher degree of confidence in the shorter term.

The moisture converges over the east with widespread rainfall developing this week. Can see the moisture streaming out of the east and then merging with moisture out of the west.

Euro 00z - Rainfall Accumulation - Next 10 Days

Rainfall generous over southern and eastern parts of the nation with the series of troughs, the most widespread falls over the eastern inland where the flood risk remains this week. Moderate rainfall possible for SA and WA with the systems passing through but it will be the secondary system that needs watching for these areas. Up north we know the wet season is knocking on the door and this too will increase rainfall chances for northern Australia. Eventually this will improve rainfall chances for QLD. Otherwise we are moving into an active period for most areas of the nation.

A closer look - you can refer to the GFS in the video.

Euro 00z - Temperature Anomalies - Next 10 Days

Temperatures are largely seasonal, though probably trending slightly cooler than normal through the southern and eastern inland where persistent cloud cover and rainfall will mean temperatures stay below average. That may also be the case for western areas of the nation as well, but up north the build up is early and heat levels are above average for this time of year, leading to that increased risk of early onset rainfall.

More coming up at 9pm looking at the rainfall across all models and my analysis of which ones carry a low moderate and high chance of verifying. It is going to be a busy week.

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