NSW - FROSTY START FOR THURSDAY THEN MORE RAIN DEVELOPING FRIDAY, COLD WEEKEND COMING UP

The wet weather is easing over the far southeast with the new high pressure system coming into the state tonight, leading to a rapid clearance of the skies over inland areas with the risk of frost running very high overnight and into the morning for areas along the divide and high chances for the plains to the west of the divide.


The remains of the moisture over inland areas of the nation will sweep into the west of the state from tomorrow night into Friday with a band of rain developing, this spreading east throughout the state during the day, falling as snow above 750m in the east with some moderate rainfall totals possible. There will be lighter rainfall through to the VIC border.


By the start of the weekend, we should see a clearance of the rain band over inland areas, but a strong westerly wind will develop in advance of another front moving through the southeast inland. This will send yet another band of showers and hail through southern districts of the state into the ACT on Sunday with temperatures well below average for the weekend.


The colder and windy weather will continue through the early part of next week though showers should decrease over the state, but the below average temperatures will continue to feature. This may also open the door for severe frost once again for inland areas when high pressure begins to move in.


A slow moving pressure pattern is expected to continue next week with much of the inland cold but dry, cool and dry along the coast and a few clouds but cold through the southern inland nearer Victoria and up the ranges to about Orange.


The next rainfall event will be featuring over in WA this time next week and begin to approach the state I suspect from next weekend with temperatures remaining below average for now.


Let’s take a look

FORECAST

Rainfall Next 10 Days

Rainfall is forecast to remain a high chance from later Thursday into Friday across the state as the next trough moves in with a decent slab of moisture. Some moderate falls are possible on and to the west of the divide through Central and Northern areas of the state with lighter falls into the south of the state. Another front will whip through the southeast during Saturday, and this will kick the rain out of the inland with drier weather returning to the state. This front will bring another surge of showers into the southern inland of the state Sunday with a few moderate falls about the Southwest Slopes. Some chance of snowfalls developing down to 750m on Friday and 600m on Sunday into early next week. The airmass should begin to dry out over the southeast inland during next week with the bulk of the showers decreasing and contracting southwards into VIC. The next rainfall chances are expected to develop for the state from later next week if not the weekend. The east coast is expected to be mostly dry for now, some patchy light rainfall may reach the coast Friday and Saturday, but the better falls will be west of the divide.

A broader look at the rainfall across the southeast and you can see the last of the cloud bands moving through in the short-term impacting large areas of the nation, but rainfall totals should be below the recent large scale rain events we have seen across the country.

Frost Forecast Thursday

The coldest morning of the year for many is expected on Thursday with local morning frost, lighter over the Plains but heavier along the slopes where it may be severe. Some areas around the ACT could see frost becoming heavy and severe from before midnight tonight. Conditions will ease after 8am.

Farmers and Graziers Alert

Be advised that the cold and windy wet weather is forecast to develop once again over the southeast inland from Friday but more particularly from Saturday and Sunday through early next week for VIC. Conditions may ease for NSW from Tuesday.

MEDIUM TERM

June 8th-15th 2022

Rainfall Anomalies

Widespread rainfall over the northern parts of the nation is expected to spread eastwards. The rainfall over WA looks to be heaviest, and the wild card system to watch is over the NT and how much moisture there can be drawn south and southeast into the NT and QLD. The rest of the nation is forecast to be mostly seasonal, there may be a slight drier bias over the southeast inland and southwest inland but overall leaning seasonal for now, thanks to so much moisture sitting over the nation's north and northwest.

Temperature Anomalies

Colder air remaining over the inland will be supported by significant cloud cover running through the jet stream leading to the widespread cooler signal. Onshore winds over the southern and southwest areas of the nation leading to showery cold conditions. The temperatures over the northern tropics may come down from the high temperatures and humidity as more cloud develops over the region leading to a trend towards below average conditions.

DATA - Refer to video for more details and context to the information shared this evening.


00Z GFS - Surface Pressure Pattern and Rainfall Distribution - Next 2 Weeks

More details in the video but watch that trough in the short term over the eastern inland with the risk of moderate rainfall, signaling the impacts of the Indian Ocean are now affecting the eastern inland of the country now via the jet stream. The southeast showery and cold with the colder than normal temperatures to forecast through next week. Another strong burst of moisture is forecast to impact the west next week and the rainfall numbers are coming up for the SWLD. Tropical weather also not adopting the dry season just yet, with more humid air to persist over the northern coastal areas.

00Z GFS - Precipitable Water Values - Next 2 Weeks

Moisture values are looking more seasonal over southern areas of the nation with a colder and blustery wind regime underway and this is leading to the below average temperatures. Troughing over northern Australia is supportive of the above average moisture being pulled southeast and south through the nation as we track through the short term and once again next week, continuing the procession of rainfall events emanating out of tropical Australia. The moisture values are coming up for much of WA including Ag Areas, now with a higher confidence of rainfall returning through next week to this region while the east dries out. Watching the tropical north very closely, especially about the NT and far north of Cape York.

00Z GFS - Rainfall Accumulation - Next 10 Days

Refer to the video for more context and analysis

00Z CMC - Rainfall Accumulation - Next 10 Days

Refer to the video for more context and analysis

00Z GFS - Rainfall Accumulation - Next 2 Weeks

Refer to the video for more context and analysis

A closer look in - the rainfall in the short term comes in two bands, one over the interior with a trough and another band coming through with the frontal weather and onshore winds over the weekend for coastal areas in the southeast, Inland areas should turn drier as we move through next week, gloomy over southeast coastal areas. The medium-term forecast is running at low confidence.

More coming up from 8pm EST with a look at the models and rainfall.

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