A pretty good looking day today under the ridge with dry air in place delivering clear skies and light winds. Cool night on the way again with another clear and sunny day on the way for Wednesday.

Thursday we will see scattered showers developing over western areas, with the risk of local thunderstorms, the bulk of the more dynamic weather could be based through VIC closer to a low pressure system moving in from the Bight. If this system sits further north in coming updates, then the forecast coverage of showers and thunderstorms may change.

At this stage, the low will move southeast during Friday, and the trough will snap north, resulting in southern and southeast inland areas of NSW being placed in divergent air with a lack of a trigger so rainfall could end up being quite lean for these areas.

From central areas through to the northeast there will be another spray of showers and thunderstorms along the trough Friday afternoon into Saturday with some of these storms possibly severe.

Now over the weekend, it is expected that the thunderstorms will move into QLD, but could come back from the west next week with another trough, but overall the transition to warmer and more humid conditions is continuing and will resolve by this time next week.

The rainfall is expected to increase dramatically over the state from the first week of November.

Lets take a look

Rainfall Next 10 days

Rainfall is expected to become more widespread through the latter part of the week for southeast Australia but a parcel of more widespread rainfall could escape through VIC and another round of showers and thunderstorms may pass through northern and eastern portions of the state into southeast QLD leaving many areas of the southern inland possibly dry until next week. So the forecast remains low confidence over the coming week thanks to placement of the low pressure system coming through the southeast and how the trough behaves. Next week, a better coverage of rainfall is expected to come through with a trough which may become slow moving over the state and combine with deeper moisture to produce more widespread showers and thunderstorms.

Thunderstorm Forecast Wednesday

Thunderstorms may creep into the west of the state from later in the evening with gusty winds possible but no severe weather is expected at this time.

Euro 00z - Surface Pressure Pattern and Rainfall Distribution - Next 10 days

The pressure pattern is turning active, more details can be found on GFS in the video but do note that the Euro and GFS are starting to converge on the idea that the nation is getting more unsettled and humid throughout the coming 10-14 days. So be prepared for higher humidity values moving forward and more prolonged periods of rain and thunderstorm activity.

Euro 00z - Precipitable Water Anomalies - Next 10 days

The precipitable water values paint that picture of wetter as we go through the outlook period with the deep moisture likely to be lifted by multiple areas of low pressure passing through from west to east across the nation. Note the southwest sitting under persistent ridging leading to less rainfall and cooler weather than normal for this time of year.

Euro 00z - Rainfall Accumulation - Next 10 days

Refer to video for more advice around the rainfall trends.

A closer look in

GFS 00z - Rainfall Accumulation - Next 16 days

Refer to video for more

Euro 00z - Rainfall Accumulation - Next 6 weeks

Refer to video for more

Further updates on the model madness and rainfall data after 9pm

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