A splendid weekend of weather for most despite the showers and storms over the far northeast yesterday and the light morning frost over the southeast this morning, settled weather continues under an upper high pressure system which is expected to control the weather as we move into the early part of this week.

Out west we are tracking a trough of low pressure which will bring unsettled weather with scattered showers and thunderstorms developing over SA and the NT and then that activity will spread into the west from Wednesday. The trough, slow moving, so there will be a number of days of unsettled weather expected from this trough.

Deep moisture throughout the northern and eastern parts of the nation will lead to a tropical feel across the region, get used to that feeling with the weather remaining unsettled for a while with the deeper moisture about.

Lets take a look


Rainfall Next 10 days

Rainfall is expected to return across the state from about Tuesday afternoon over the north and west with the residual activity from SA, QLD and the NT starting to converge on the region. From Wednesday through to the weekend, with scattered showers and thunderstorms across much of the state, however the broad focus may begin to lift out of the south and west of the state briefly before a new trough approaches from the west again, bringing another round of rain and thunderstorms.

Regional rainfall charts to be issued when we get a better handle on rainfall confidence. But for now it is better to look broadly at the rainfall.


Euro 00z - Surface Pressure Pattern and Rainfall Distribution - Next 10 days

More details on the synoptic scale in the video at the top of the page.

GFS 00z - Precipitable Water Values - Next 16 days

The very high moisture values leads to excessive rainfall and that also impacts rainfall chances further around the nation where the upper level winds propel that moisture to.

GFS 00z - Precipitable Water Anomalies - Next 16 days

Note the moisture recycling and circulating around the nation, I talk more about this at the surface level in the video at the top of the page.

Euro 00z - Rainfall Accumulation - Next 10 days

More details in the video.

A closer look in. No skill in specifics, we now work with ranges of rainfall forecasting which I know is frustrating but that is how it rolls.

GFS 00z - Rainfall Accumulation - Next 16 days

Scattered uneven rainfall will continue, but that rainfall prognostic for the tropics into the NT and WA is record rainfall for this time of year.

CMC 00z - Rainfall Accumulation - Next 15 days

That is a wet look for the nation, even SA which is sitting in a 30-60mm range for the next 2 weeks.

CFS 00z - Rainfall Accumulation - Next 6 weeks

That wet signal continues for much of the nation into mid December

I will update more tomorrow from 7am EDT. Let the models settle and see how they look during the morning.

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