NSW - FINE WEATHER THIS WEEKEND, STORMY CHANGE MID NEXT WEEK

The sun is out in full force over the east coast and northern inland, the weather clearing slowly over the remainder of the inland. High pressure coming into the eastern inland with clearer skies extending throughout. it will lead to frost redeveloping for inland areas during Saturday and Sunday morning.


Frost Forecast for Saturday morning

Severe frost possible from Canberra south through Cooma and towards the higher parts of the southeastern inland of the coast. Widespread frost along the eastern side of the GDR protected from the low cloud blanketing the inland. Now if that low cloud breaks up quicker overnight, there is the risk of light frost extending over the plains.

The weather this weekend fine and sunny with light winds for most of the state, especially Sunday which looks to be the better day through the weekend.


Next week warming right up, temperatures moving into the low to mid 20s over the inland and this will begin to dry things out over the inland. But another change is approaching (which is why the northwest winds are bringing in the moisture from interior parts of the nation).



A thundery band of rain over southern and central parts of the state is expected as moisture from the northeast to easterly flow will likely be drawn into the inland areas, but then quickly picked up by the front to produce the widespread shower and storm activity with a colder change.


Moisture is now increasing further this evening ahead of the front coming into SE Australia, notice the clash of the aimasses too, the upper atmosphere is quite cold behind the front which will support the development of thunderstorms along the boundary.

The weather likely drying out during this time next week, though showers may redevelop along the east coast.


The medium term also offers some more interesting signals tonight as well. More information can be found on that at the top of the page.


00Z GFS Surface Pressure Pattern for the coming 16 days

Modelling is still looking very similar to this morning with a strong set of fronts coming through the southwest, passing through to the east during mid week. Ahead of that, warm and sunny with gusty northwest winds developing. Then we have that colder shift Thursday over the southeast states, with the showers largely confined to the coastal areas while the inland areas dry out again. The medium term, remains quiet for now but the moisture is building dramatically through the middle and latter parts of August.

00z GFS Rainfall for the coming 16 days

Rainfall unchanged for most areas from this morning, but the falls have picked up a tad through the southeast of SA and over VIC in some of the data sets. Will see how that looks in the morning. Otherwise it is dry for pretty much the next 2 weeks for many areas away from that frontal boundary passing through if you believe GFS. Which I don't.

00z GFS Precipitable Water Anomalies next 16 days

The PW values are becoming drier over the southeast and eastern inland but increasing and elevating over the west coast with frontal weather moving in. Another surge of moisture moving through the northwest flow connected to the jet stream bringing a band of rainfall there with a cold front. That front will spread some of that moisture eastwards mid week. Moisture over the east coast will continue to build with onshore winds developing and building that humid profile in the lower levels. That will bring back showers for the east but seed the atmosphere ahead of the front mid week, resulting in a broad band of rain and thunderstorms. In the medium term we have a lot of moisture across vast areas of the nation, but as I keep saying from run to run, it will translate into rainfall in WA, then move that rainfall into QLD, then disappear and repeat. So no signal from the models that they have a clue at this time.

00z Euro Surface Pressure Pattern for the coming 10 days

The Euro somewhat similar to the GFS this evening, though not as robust in the rainfall spread as per GFS tonight in the lead system coming in from WA mid week over the southeast but the signal is still the same with very warm weather developing ahead of the front early next week, with sunny skies. The east will see a southeast to easterly wind shift as the high ridges in this weekend into next week with showers developing, but light falls expected. That moisture then moves through the northeast flow over NSW into VIC and increases the chance of showers and storms mid week. The moisture does not quite make it into SA but a few showers with lighter falls than GFS likely under the Euro solution. The medium term throws up a low with deepening moisture over WA in the medium term and moisture increasing over the eastern inland with a few showers and thunderstorms for QLD. But this will again change.

00z Euro Rainfall for the coming 10 days

Rainfall still a bit hard to pin down on the Euro, with the model showing lighter falls than this morning for the southeast. The east coast still likely to see light falls from Sunday but more likely Monday as onshore winds return. Then we have the most widespread rainfall for the southeast and east with a cold front passing through during Wednesday. The weather then clears rapidly by this time next week with a new high moving in for the southeast inland, the coast may see the showers return in easterly winds and moisture increases over the inland.

00z Euro Precipitable Water Values next 10 days

The moisture is expected to deepen through WA this weekend with a front approaching, but at the same time the moisture over the eastern inland dries out leading to clearer skies this weekend. Along the east coast, the moisture will return from Sunday with easterly winds developing. That modest moisture supply then drawn into the eastern inland with a front helping to pull that south and southeast. Another large plume of moisture sweeps over the NT and QLD then into northern WA next week which will bring the first hints of build up for the north. That moisture likely to pool and then be utilised as some stage, SOMEWHERE, over the inland portions of the nation.

Rainfall for the next 10 days

The modelling is largely unchanged in the face of the data sets tonight. The most widespread rainfall event is still anticipated for Wednesday through Thursday over NSW. There will be scattered showers over the coast from Sunday through Tuesday in advance of the frontal weather but it will be light and patchy. More showers are likely to develop for coastal areas during next weekend. Most of the western inland remains dry for now.

Weekend is here and I will have another national update on Saturday and a moisture watch update too, have a great Friday night.



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