A quiet period and not much to add other than a dry spell to continue for the inland well into next week, some frost risks are back on the table for the next few mornings however.
Frost Risk for Friday Morning
The weather is expected to be cold and clear tonight with the risk of frost highest over the southeast inland of NSW and into the ACT. There is a chance of severe frost over the Monaro and ACT. Warmer air and more humid air along a stalled boundary creating a stark contrast in temperatures over the northern parts of NSW.
The weather along the coast will become cloudy with showers developing as easterly winds return in onshore winds and in the presence of a trough. The falls mainly light but there could be some moderate falls further up the coast you go towards QLD.
A front will sweep out the trough early next week with a southwest to southerly flow developing. That will send a pulse of drier air through the eastern inland, so dry weather to continue for the eastern inland and a run of frosty mornings to continue as well.
Moisture likely to be out of phase with the frontal weather passing through the nation later this weekend.
The next change is expected to roll through the southeast in the form of a weakening trough during this time next week it seems. Another trough will develop over eastern inland Australia kicking off a few thundery showers.
A much stronger system still on the cards for next weekend with rain becoming more widespread as we explained earlier.
Lets look at modelling.
00Z GFS Surface Pressure Pattern for the coming 16 days
The pattern is settled for the coming 5 days despite the weak front passing through the southeast states. That will flush the humidity out of the eastern inland and take a trough offshore with it. The weather over the remainder of the inland from WA through SA into the eastern inland will remain dry and seasonal. The weather starts to turn unsettled at this stage on the latest data from Thursday over WA and SA with patchy rainfall and thunder possible as the inland turns warmer in a northwest flow. Then a stronger colder feature develops from WA later next week which could spark a large scale multi state rainfall event and possibly the first storm outbreak over QLD as that feature rolls through, so the shift is starting to appear on the GFS this evening. Now we watch the charts and data to see if there is consistency in the guidance in the coming days. The tropics also turning warmer and more humid over this period.
00z GFS Rainfall for the coming 16 days
Fairly dry over much of the inland for the coming 7 days with no rainfall expected. A few showers and drizzle for the coastal areas from later this weekend and next week before that clears. The next major rainfall event for the nation comes later next week into the following weekend. Otherwise a trough before that may bring some showers to southern SA and VIC mid next week, and showery weather for pockets of the east coast remains fair.
00z GFS Precipitable Water Anomalies next 16 days
The PW anomalies again shifting away from the drier trend from this morning, back wet, with the modelling now supporting multiple rainfall events for the nation from later next week. Some of that may turn heavy with a colder shift through SA and into the southeast states. Moderate rainfall also possible for WA from this time next week. Over QLD, moisture rolling onshore may bring up rainfall chances from later this weekend through next week, that moisture surging west and south through the eastern inland of the nation could link up with that front, with a large scale rainfall event developing next weekend for SA, VIC and NSW then into eastern QLD with storms possible. Another strong system can be seen in the outlook for the west with more moisture surging in from the Indian Ocean. Be interesting to see if that holds up tomorrow morning.
00z Euro Surface Pressure Pattern for the coming 10 days
The pattern unchanged from this morning, a settled spell for the nation is expected through next week with showers fairly coastal over the south and east of the nation for the most part but even there the rainfall light and patchy, FNQ is quite a lot wetter though under the influence of trade winds. The weather turns more dynamic at the end of the run, a little later than GFS but they are in agreement, next weekend is where we see the weather change. How far north that trough or low comes remains to be seen.
00z Euro Rainfall for the coming 10 days
The inland essentially dry for the coming 7 days or so for most of the nation, with coastal areas seeing the most of the precipitation. Next week the rainfall will return to the inland of WA first starting mid next week and the southeast may start to see more rainfall developing next weekend. There is a low chance of this moving into QLD at this time.
00z Euro Precipitable Water Values next 10 days
The Euro has reintroduced moisture this evening in the data sets, where this morning it was drier. So that flip flopping will continue, but the good signal is that it has come into agreement with most global models suggesting a change developing from the west later next week that spreads through the east. How much inland rainfall develops is not clear but there are all possibilities of widespread inland rainfall with the moisture increasing.
Rainfall for the next 10 days
Rainfall lean for the inland as expected under the pattern flipping and dry air relocating south mid month, we are seeing that play out. The weather turns more active for the back half of the month and model consensus is not so great on that with variability in the forecast package into the medium term which has been outlined a lot already this week. Starting to see hints of models coming into agreement a bit tonight but the PW values are divergent in the medium term impacting rainfall outcomes. But that will become clearer as we go through the coming weekend into early next week. Otherwise the east coast is expecting to the see the bulk of the rain with the south of the state seeing rainfall next weekend.
I will have a climate update tomorrow, the final part in the national storm season outlook for 2021/22 and a wet season outlook. A lot on. And it will have impacts on where you are living.