NSW - FINE WEATHER CONTINUES UNTIL LATER THIS WEEK

Again a lot of the interest weather wise lay back in the back half of this week and through the weekend with a larger scale system connected to the long wave trough which is set to advance through the southern parts of the nation from next week, that has the highest chance of delivering more widespread rainfall throughout the nation, regardless of the model flipping and flopping like a fish out of water.


In the short term another colder night is on the way, last night the cloud cover and northwest winds saved many areas from a frost, but tonight, the winds are expected to drop out a little so a moderate frost risk is possible in the east.


Frost Risk Tuesday Morning.

The weather getting warmer throughout the week, some areas over the north of the state approaching the high 20s within the coming days with a series of fronts to pass over the south of the nation, helping to draw in warm air from the interior.


Temperatures will be some of the warmest the have been in a few weeks with the ground temperature starting to a warm up a little in northern parts of the state with above average temperatures expected for much of this week into the weekend, north of the lead frontal passages.

The first of the fronts are expected to pass through the region during Friday with deeper moisture now looking to be available, introducing showers over southern inland NSW with a thunderstorm is fair, but once again most of that falling in the south and west of the divide.

A stronger system may pass through southeast Australia during later Saturday. That could bring another band of light to moderate rainfall through southern parts of the state and west of the divide in the southeast.

Then a brief lull before we see a stronger system advance east, this time next week which does offer the best chance of rainfall for eastern Australia. The models tonight are still expressing a high level of uncertainty in the forecasting packages for next week as you can see in the latest update below. You can see the other solutions on the table in the medium term forecasting update.

Temperatures once again ahead of the system next week, are looking well above average for large parts of the eastern inland with mid to high 20s possible over northern NSW.

Lets take a look at the latest details

00Z GFS Surface Pressure Pattern for the coming 16 days

Watching a warming trend over much of the nation as we track high pressure through the southern and eastern inland. The weather out west is expected to cool down with showers developing with the first in a series of weaker fronts this week. That will sweep through the nation's south during the coming week with the warmth from WA passing through the south and east of the nation then areas of rain or patchy showers coming through to the east. The northern inland of the nation stays dry for now in the latest data but again anything beyond about a week out is very low confidence. The GFS suggesting the dry air wins out, I am not so sure on that. The medium term forecast tonight shows weaker upper lows wafting through southern parts of the nation which I am not so convinced about.

00z GFS Rainfall for the coming 16 days

Rainfall again largely coastal for the coming week over the east and the south, the heaviest falls reserved for the western face of TAS, the FNQ coastal areas between Cairns and Cardwell and the southeast of SA and into southwest VIC. Overall lighter falls extend inland for now, through much of VIC and into southeast NSW west of the divide. Some areas of the EP and YP could do OK as well. But will have to watch these lead systems to see how much moisture they ingest before coming into the eastern states. Next week, a dog's breakfast.

00z GFS Precipitable Water Anomalies next 16 days

Moisture values are near normal over much of the country for this time of year though values are above average over the northern parts as an easterly wind regime propels moisture from the trade winds over much of the north. That moisture then gets drawn through WA and extends south and southeast into the fronts that pass over southern parts of the nation. The issue with the rainfall bouncing all over the place is related to the inability for the models to pick whether the moisture is in phase with the frontal weather to produce widespread rainfall. The models also all over the shop in terms of scale and depth of the long wave passing over next week.

00z Euro Surface Pressure Pattern for the coming 10 days

The weather is looking largely settled and seasonal throughout much of the nation, though remaining warmer than normal over the northern parts of the NT and QLD with humidity values also increasing. There is warmer weather on the way for the south and east as a consequence of northwest winds redeveloping as the high pressure passes out to the east of the nation and the approach of frontal weather through the southwest of the nation initially and then those systems make an approach to the southeast states. Next week there are signals of more frontal weather but it is unclear to what scale that will be. There is now a drier trend in the modelling this evening, this morning, there was more moisture available. That expresses the uncertainty in the outlook period.

00z Euro Rainfall for the coming 10 days

As per the GFS the Euro is in good agreement in the distribution of the wet weather around the nation in the coming days, light showers for parts of the southeast clearing, light showers and drizzle developing on the east coast as onshore winds redevelop. The most widespread rainfall and wet weather is expected with the fronts rolling through the south of the nation during Wednesday out west through WA, then SA and VIC from later Thursday into Friday. A stronger front over the weekend could bring more showery weather over the southeast this weekend and next week into the medium term remains a dog's breakfast in forecasting, so hopefully more consistency coming into the models during the coming days.

00z Euro Precipitable Water Values next 10 days

The PW values are modest for the coming week, with seasonal values getting drawn into frontal weather over WA, that spreads over SA and then into the southeast states with moderate falls possible for pockets of the southern states. The moisture also increasing along the east coast with the onshore winds returning. Then another impulse of moisture via trade winds passing through northern Australia wafts into WA next week and it is that moisture that will either be in or out of phase with the long wave passing over SA this time next week.

Rainfall for the next 10 days.

Tricky forecast in the medium term and you can find more on that in the medium term forecast update at the top of the page. In the short term, good agreement with two fronts, one on Thursday into Friday and another passing through Sunday with showers about southern inland parts of NSW with a few showers creeping up the spine of the GDR. The western and northern inland dry until this time next week at this stage. I won't quite remove the rainfall yet for the northwest and western parts of the state with a low confidence in the outlook period beyond Sunday.


Tomorrow I will have a climate update looking at the current drivers and the potential for La Nina to develop in the Spring and Summer which could impact rainfall for the warmer season greatly. Could we get the Indian Ocean and the ENSO in a wet phase at the same time?










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