NSW - FINE FRIDAY THEN WEEKEND RAINFALL AND NEXT WEEK UNSETTLED.

The last of the dry weather for a while for a lot of NSW with a series of troughs to pass through during the coming 7-10 days at least, to bring unsettled weather.


Rainfall coverage is likely to be widespread but the distribution of rainfall uneven, thunderstorms in the mix creating those heavier falls in scattered pockets.


We have one system coming through during the weekend from Central Australia and a front over the southeast states, combining to bring areas of rain and thunder. The heavier rainfall looks more likely for the northern districts and patchier for the southern districts.


Then we have the trough over northern areas linger, seeing rainfall persist over the inland and showers along the northern coastal areas while the weather over the south trends drier early in the week,


Another trough will approach mid week with a batch of showers and storms statewide, however some of that thunderstorm coverage could be strong and bring heavier rainfall to the southern districts.


Lets take a look

Rainfall next 10 days

Two systems within this envelope of time and we are getting better guidance on the rainfall and from tomorrow I am hoping to issue regional rainfall charts for the state, depending on confidence. The first event passing through during Saturday afternoon into early next week brings the heavier rainfall to parts of northern NSW. Some locations could record more than a month's worth of rainfall. Another batch of showers and storms with another trough looks likely to bring better rainfall for southern and central districts mid next week. The low confidence forecast continues I am afraid, hopefully we will see better guidance tomorrow.

DATA


Euro 00z - Surface Pressure Pattern and Rainfall Distribution - Next 10 Days

The pressure pattern still supports fairly settled weather for the end of the working week nationwide, very quiet weather-wise. From Saturday the weather turns over inland NT and through northern SA as a front and pressure trough taps into deep moisture to produce widespread cloud and patchy rainfall. There will be the chance of storms through parts of the NT spreading into northern SA and western NSW and QLD. The southeast will also see showers with the front passing through but light falls. There is a very low chance of thunderstorms with thick cloud cover stamping out the storm risk, that moves east through Sunday. Now Monday rain is ongoing over QLD and NSW back through the NT and a strong cold front passing over the SWLD will bring showers and gusty colder conditions to the region. That front then races across, helps to push out the first system, but itself will bring the next batch of showers and storms for SA, VIC and NSW. This may also bring severe weather to some locations in the southeast. Over the north, the coverage of rainfall and unsettled weather in a hot soupy airmass is anticipated to ramp up as the upper high weakens. And finally, mostly below average temperatures for much of next week over the SWLD with onshore southwesters.

Euro 00z - Precipitable Water Anomalies - Next 10 Days

As pointed out in the video, the timing of the moisture in relation to weather systems moving out of the west of the the nation will determine the rainfall distribution. We have tracked a myriad of solutions this week but now starting to see the models settle on the front capturing the trough and dragging it all through together over the weekend and Monday. Then you can see the next system developing next week from the west which then brings another batch of showers and storms as it hits a deeper moisture supply over the east of the nation. Note the moisture hanging on over the northern parts of the nation as the seasonal shift continues and how that moisture then impacts rainfall chances into the nations south and east. The west of the nation will see showery weather over the SWLD but away from there the weather is dry over the west of the nation with limited moisture under high pressure ridging in.

Euro 00z - Rainfall Accumulation - Next 10 Days

Rainfall accumulation continues to remain low confidence with the bias still expected to remain in place over eastern and northern parts of the nation which is no surprise if you have been here a while. Some areas of QLD and NSW could see 1/2 to 1 months worth of rainfall and isolated falls in the outback netting 2 months rainfall during this period. Over SA the rainfall is very conditional and based upon where the low pressure troughs peak and how much moisture they draw in over the state before raining themselves more efficiently over the east. The tropics are active and expected to spread further west into the Kimberly and the Cape York region at the end of the period. After the front in the SWLD early next week, the rainfall chances decrease with persistent ridging at this stage.

A closer look in

GFS 00z - Rainfall Accumulation - Next 10 Days

Refer to video for more details.

I will have a look at the full model data and all things rainfall after 9pm tonight so come back for that as many are relying on this information at the moment.




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