NSW - FINE FRIDAY ON THE WAY - NEXT WEEK THE WEATHER POSES SOME RAINFALL.

A cold start this morning throughout the inland with some locations down to -7C with severe frost but conditions are expected to warm up today once the fog leaves areas of the GDR and the Slopes. That is the only excitement weather wise for the inland.


Stable weather for the state today, cold weather inland this morning warming up quite nicely this afternoon with a northwester.


We will see winds veer into the east with a chance of showers developing for the North Coast from this afternoon over the weekend thanks to an onshore wind flow and a weak trough over the inland but really it will be light falls for the northeastern third of the state at best.


All the interest lay in next week so lets take a look as we track a benign 5-6 days of weather.


12Z GFS Surface Pressure Pattern for the coming 16 days

The pressure pattern is being dominated by high pressure now, that resulted in the benign forecasts for most of the nation during the coming 5-6 days. The next change of interest is coming in by about Thursday next week with perhaps a few showers and storms spreading across southern Australia, the temperatures expected to be above average ahead of that front. Another stronger front is expected to sweep through WA this time next week and that system, which has had multiple looks, has the potential to bring widespread rainfall for the southeast and eastern inland of the nation. This morning it has dropped some of that rainfall, last night it had a major system. It will become clearer by early next week which way it goes.

12z GFS Rainfall for the coming 10 days

Rainfall non existent for the inland until about this time next week with a stronger system approaching from the west, more likely to bring rainfall chances up from next Friday, but more likely over the weekend. There may be a weaker system pass through the southeast during later this weekend into Monday with showers and drizzle for southern VIC and western TAS, but most of that staying coastal, otherwise for many, a dry week on the way over the east.

12z GFS Precipitable Water Anomalies next 16 days

The PW values look relatively unchanged from last night, the elements to watch is to see whether the fronts are in phase with the moisture as it drifts southeast and south from the nation. At this stage some of the moisture is drawn south into these fronts, but more likely to happen later next week into weekend. In the short term, modest moisture near a weak boundary will bring showers to the east coast, and you can see the deeper moisture over the northern parts of the QLD coast. That will sweep the north of the nation increasing humidity values. More moisture builds up over the northern parts of the nation through the medium term and that will likely contribute to a damp start to September for many areas of the nation.

12z Euro Surface Pressure Pattern for the coming 10 days

The pressure pattern unchanged from last night, and is still inconsistent in the 5-10 day forecast window. So that forecast remains low for most of the nation, but the signals are continuing to support low pressure returning later this week into the weekend as per most other global models. So now we watch how strong those systems are as they move west to east over the south. Showers for the east coast in the short term and a few showers developing for the north of the nation with humidity rising.

12z Euro Rainfall for the coming 10 days

Rainfall lean for most inland areas of the nation with the weather trending warmer and drier as the high pressure consolidates over the southern and central parts of the nation. You can see the frontal weather returns for the west of the nation mid next week and that starts the process of introducing rainfall chances for the nation later next week. Otherwise in the short term we have easterly winds driving showers for the QLD coast for most of the week ahead, mainly north of Hervey Bay. Moisture may kick off a few showers over the northern tropics.

12z Euro Precipitable Water Values next 10 days

The values have gone from wetter last night, as the systems were in phase, the drier this morning, with the systems out of phase and the moisture staying over the north and northwest, waiting for a system to time itself properly. With the inconsistency, the weather forecasts are remaining low, but the signal for moisture increasing over the northwest and north seems fair, the Euro is just expressing the uncertainty, which we covered off yesterday in the 2 week forecast.

Rainfall for the next 10 days

The rainfall lean for the inland over the coming week as the belt of high pressure moves through the region. That high pressure system will swing the winds into the southeast this morning and a few showers likely for the North Coast which may extend south to the MNC this weekend, but not much rainfall in it. Otherwise another round of showery weather is expected to sweep the southeast early in the new week, much of that will stay south of NSW. A stronger system next Thursday or Friday offers the next best chance of rainfall for the region.

I will have a Climate update for the remainder of August, a Wet Season Outlook for 2021/22 and a look at how many storm outbreaks you can expect this Severe Weather Season.



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