NSW - FAIRLY SETTLED THIS WEEK AND OVER EAST NOW, COASTAL SHOWERS ABOUT. BUT NO SEVERE WEATHER

Which is great news! The weather dominated by high pressure it seems and drier air, a big change to where things were heading last week. So for now we are in a holding pattern with seasonal weather conditions for much of the state.


The temperatures however will begin to move above the average more broadly from the Easter long weekend, with gorgeous days and cool nights, no threat of frost at this stage with a warm airmass.


A trough passing through today bringing an increase of cloud from Tuesday with a shower about and a few showers along the coast to about Thursday will be the only major rainfall opportunity this week. That is good news for the coastal areas needing to dry out.


A stronger trough may push through from Easter Monday with widespread rain and thunderstorms for southern and southeast areas with moderate to heavy falls possible but the confidence is low. The inland areas look to avoid rainfall for now, but also expected to be low confidence here too.


Climate drivers for the short term are carrying low confidence at the moment.


Lets take a look

FORECAST

Rainfall Next 10 Days

Rainfall looks to be somewhat lean for inland areas and many areas over the Upper and Lower Western should be dry for now, but watch the moisture over northern Australia and entering WA into the medium term for that being the next chance of widespread rainfall returning. For southern areas a few showers and thunder tonight will be clearing tomorrow with the wet weather focussed along the coast with that southeast change. That change will move into northern areas from Wednesday before easing by Thursday. Most areas this weekend should be dry with warmer northwest winds, all ahead of the next change that could bring another round of showers and thunderstorms by next Tuesday onwards for southern and eastern areas. Some evidence that a low may form on the trough but whether that happens over land or offshore the east coast remains to be seen. But thankfully, many areas are looking much drier in the east.

NO SEVERE WEATHER RISKS ARE LIKELY THROUGH THIS PERIOD

MEDIUM TERM - April 18th-25th 2022

Moisture Watch Next Week

We are now seeing the odds of moisture making it into the Indian Ocean from this tropical wave over the course of the next 7 days now drop away as a high pressure system will be sitting too far west and this will allow a front to slip over the southeast early next week leading to the moisture surging into the Coral Sea. Over the west, we have to watch the moisture offshore the west coast which could lead to a large cloud band forming with rain developing after Easter. This could spread further eastwards. The air over the tropics should start to decrease as we move towards ANZAC Day.

Rainfall Anomalies

Very tricky to forecast at the moment so expect this to continue to change from day to day, but it will settle down once we lose the tropical wave and low pressure system over the north. The interesting weather that could bring back more rainfall over the nation's south, could be found with a deepening moisture plume coming out of the Indian Ocean and possibly being picked up by an eastward moving trough. Good to see the east drying out further with no strong bias for above average rainfall just yet but with the SAM leaning positive we must watch trends closely.

Temperature Anomalies

Temperatures are forecast to be above average for a fair chunk of inland Australia which is fair in relation to the placement of the upper ridge. Moisture rotating through northern Australia and over the Indian Ocean will lead to cloudy skies with scattered rainfall, some heavy. The southwest looking cooler than normal with persistent cloud cover and areas of rain with southerly winds. The east coast will see onshore southeast winds but rainfall should be light and more sunshine in between the cloud should see seasonal temperatures for now.

DATA - Refer to the video for further information and it is critical to keep check of the data sets to understand where the next major weather events are emerging from outside of this period. It may be quiet now but I am all about preparation and ensuring that information is shared with you as soon as it is available.


00Z GFS - Surface Pressure Pattern and Rainfall Distribution - Next 2 Weeks

You can get the latest analysis on the daily breakdown for the coming 15 days at the top of the page, but certainly looking much more settled for the disaster zones which is good news in the east. Out west looking more active and certainly looking more active over the tropics with the potential for late season record rainfall about parts of the NT.

00Z GFS - Precipitable Water Values - Next 2 Weeks

Moisture content through the nation as at reasonably seasonal levels away from the tropics. For those hanging out for rainfall in the south this was the hope for you but unfortunately it is set to head east bound at this time, though the tropical entity could head west, it will be a long while before we feel its impacts. A bit of dry air has entrenched itself into the Southern Ocean too which is not unusual and may be overriden by the moisture coming out of the jet stream in the medium term.

00Z GFS - Rainfall Accumulation - Next 10 Days

Refer to the video for more context and analysis plus look out for the post after 8pm EST on all things rainfall.

00Z CMC - Rainfall Accumulation - Next 10 Days

Nowhere near as amplified over northern Australia so that is why my forecasts are not reflecting the 1000mm rainfall forecasts that some agencies are printing out for the region. Otherwise more follow up rainfall for the west and coastal front or two over the east but it is hard to find rainfall over the inland in the next week to two weeks if this is right.

00Z Euro - Rainfall Accumulation - Next 10 Days

Noting the rainfall over the northern tropics also excessive for the dry eastern Top End. Noting the rainfall developing next week over WA and some spottier falls over the southeast and east coast with onshore winds. Inland areas dry.

00Z GFS - Rainfall Accumulation - Next 2 Weeks

Refer to the video for more context and analysis plus look out for the post after 8pm EST on all things rainfall.

A closer look in - the rainfall is light on for now but I do think it is a little too dry, but more on that coming up in my analysis later on this evening.

More coming up from 8pm EDT with a look at the models and rainfall, I will only share information that is in reasonable agreement as too much is too confusing and I only want to share what is plausible at this time, so stay tuned for that.




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