NSW - EXTENSIVE RAIN AND THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUE WITH FLOOD RISKS ONGOING.

There have been some whopping storms out there today and some locations being belted while other being spared as mentioned. The moist tropical airmass remaining in place for a number of days but the air becoming cooler over southern and western areas with rain areas contracting north and east slowly tomorrow and through Saturday.


The risk of flooding remains high through the weekend for many locations long after the rain has ended with water making its way into river systems.


There are further humid and unsettled days next week as well.


Lets take a look

FORECAST

Rainfall Next 10 Days

Extensive rain and thunderstorms continues tonight and Friday with locally heavy falls of rainfall and flash and riverine flooding. The risk is contracting eastwards during the coming 36hrs and a drier picture will develop for western areas of the state. For the central and eastern parts, humid air remains, though cooler temperatures this week for southern districts. Showers, more widespread over the east and central areas with locally heavy falls continuing. Thunderstorms thinning out a little. Next week, the air warms and the humidity deepens and likely to see showers and thunderstorms increasing once again with the risk of severe weather. This is likely to take us through to next weekend.

Thunderstorm Forecast Friday

Thunderstorms are expected to continue tonight and tomorrow for much of the central and eastern areas of the state. The most potent thunderstorms are anticipated for areas over northeast NSW where the air will be warmer. The risk is easing for western and southern areas by dawn I suspect with a cooler southeast flow developing.

Flash Flood Risk Friday

The main concern remains flash and riverine flooding tonight and tomorrow with many rivers in flood and new ones also going into flood. There has been scattered reports of flash flooding and the water has to go somewhere, the rivers will be swollen over the inland and with additional rainfall forecast, flash flooding will continue to occur easily with moderate to heavy rainfall away from thunderstorms.

Damaging Winds Risk Friday - Thunderstorms

Damaging winds are possible with thunderstorms over the northeast of the state but the risk is considered moderate.

Damaging Winds Risk Friday - Low Pressure

Damaging southeast winds are forecast to develop over the southeast, mainly the eastern facing ranges and hillsides. Winds could reach 100km/h and this may include the Canberra region as well.

Riverine Flood Risk - Next 7 Days

No change to conditions over the southeast and eastern inland with the coverage of rainfall this evening. The risk may become more concentrated in the days to come.

DATA - You can compare the GFS evening run with my video analysis.


00Z Euro - Surface Pressure Pattern and Rainfall Distribution - Next 10 Days

The major rainfall event of the sequence is clearly upon us now with this feature clearing east over the course of the of the next 2 days. But it leaves behind the trough which will spark further showers and thunderstorms for QLD, NSW and the ACT. Some of that instability may creep south into VIC mid next week ahead of a cold front or trough that will spark another storm outbreak next week for the eastern inland. The daily rainfall with high humidity in the region will retard the ability for things to dry out over the eastern inland. The Euro is low confidence at the moment with it struggling to pick how far west and south the moisture is allowed to come from the east. The west remains how and dry with milder days perhaps next week for coastal areas of the SWLD with a southeast shift. Warmer days on the way for SA as well with mostly dry conditions following the wild weather over the east today. The tropics are mostly seasonal though the activity does start to increase. But this is a classic positive SAM phase playing out.

00Z Euro - Precipitable Water Values - Next 10 Days

As per the GFS, a very deep moisture layer stays in place for the east and north while the west and central areas enjoy the drier air that moves into the southeast but struggles to move the humidity out of NSW and QLD. This sets up more rainfall opportunities and a high chance of further wild weather, severe storm outbreaks in the short and medium term. Once we get this current system off the board during the weekend, we will have a better handle on how far west this moisture comes. But overall having this much moisture in the forecast is not a good sign for those needing dry days in the east. For the west, looking and feeling pretty good with dry air, but even towards the end of the period the humidity from the north begins to shift south into the southern and central interior.

00Z Euro - Rainfall Accumulation - Next 10 Days

More details can be found in the video and again at 9pm EDT.

A closer look in

More details in the rainfall and model wrap coming up after 9pm. If you are living in the east, remain weather aware.

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