NSW EVENING WEATHER UPDATE - RAINFALL ON THE INCREASE AGAIN.

A strong cold front is passing through eastern SA this afternoon and this evening. A band of rain with some thunderstorm activity has developed along the axis of the front and will likely move further east this afternoon and this evening.


Ahead of that front, the air is conditionally unstable and we have seen scattered showers and a few storms pop up in the moist airmass. They will continue off and on tonight before the more persistent rainfall develops from Friday through Saturday.


Satellite Imagery

Clusters of showers and thunderstorms are moving through this evening over the inland, with areas of rain and a few storms over the northeast clearing out to sea. Some nice lightning to view if you live off the coast of Newcastle this evening. More showers and storms are expected to increase during Friday and Saturday with some heavy falls possible about the Southwest Slopes and Alpine areas, where snow will fall.

Storms this afternoon through the east

00z Euro - Surface Pressure Pattern and Rainfall Distribution next 10 days

Aggressive frontal weather continues to push through the southeast over the coming days, with some good rainfall for those west of the divide and high over the southeast districts west of the divide. Rain should ease during the weekend, but more showers are expected to sweep through early next week a front pushing through. More widespread rainfall with moderate falls this time next week thanks to a moisture surge and large front and low moving through the Bight.

00z GFS - Surface Pressure Pattern and Rainfall Distribution next 10 days

Similar to the Euro, aggressive frontal weather for the state during the next few days with a large mass of cold air interacting with a moist airmass drawn in from the Indian Ocean. Conditions will dry out over the weekend with a dry surge passing through behind the front Saturday. Fine for the inland generally Sunday but more showers developing Monday through Tuesday for the southern third with a larger scale system developing after that similar to Euro.

00z Euro - Precipitable Water Anomalies next 10 days

Moisture values very high over the eastern inland clearing away, with the sequence drying out for the northern half of the state. More moisture is expected to filter through on the westerly wind profile thanks to fast moving frontal weather. The fronts are expected to deliver reasonable shower coverage over the next 3 days. Then a break, then more moisture filtering in from the westerly winds once again. Larger moisture source off to the west through parts of WA will link into a front and low to bring more widespread mid to late next week.

00z GFS - Precipitable Water Anomalies next 10 days

GFS is similar in it's approach but has more frontal weather than the moisture surging out of the northwest. But the result is the same with rainfall bias to those west of the divide and over the southern inland with fast moving frontal weather next week. More widespread state rainfall is possible next week particularly later in the period with a bigger feature and into the end of the month with more frontal weather.

00z Euro - Rainfall for the next 10 days

Rainfall looks healthy the next few days for those west of the divide in NSW with heavy falls over the mountains in the southeast. Falls likely exceeding what is being shown here. Then more rainfall developing early in the week mainly for the south and southeast. Then another wave of rainfall moving in later in the period, towards this time next week, could be quite heavy at times. That may have a flood risk issue for the southeastern parts of NSW west of the divide.

00z GFS - Rainfall for the next 10 days

Similar rainfall spread to the Euro with quite a number of fronts over the coming 10 days, the wet weather continues to dominate with the westerly wind regime. Heavy falls for those exposed to the westerly flow and heavy snowfalls of up to 1m possible this week.

Rainfall for the next 10 days - Curated Forecast

Rainfall is largely unchanged for the south with the wettest days still tomorrow through Saturday and then again next week for southern areas, the north will dry out under a ridge and dry air moving through. Some heavy falls are still likely in the flood watch zone near Tumut and Batlow. Stronger frontal weather developing next week could bring more widespread rainfall for southern and central NSW with moisture returning from the northwest and feeding cold fronts.

Rainfall for the next 10 days - Curated Forecast

No real change for the region with storms and showers tonight increasing into Friday with moderate to heavy falls. More rainfall develops later Monday and Tuesday and then another round of moderate to heavy rainfall later in the week with the chance of renewed flood risk for this region.


Rainfall for the next 10 days - Curated Forecast

Rainfall coming down over the north as the moisture leaves the region and drier air pushes in behind a colder shift Saturday. Light rainfall tonight for parts of southeast QLD then dry weather and perhaps some showers for the southern part of this viewing area with small hail into Saturday before more rainfall this time next week.

Snowfalls for the next 10 days - Curated Forecast

Light snowfalls possible away from Alpine areas. The snowfalls may accumulate over the Central Tablelands during Friday night into Saturday. Otherwise moderate to heavy snowfalls are likely over the Alpine Areas from later tonight with thunder. More snowfalls now likely for Monday through Tuesday with the chance of further moderate to heavy falls with a developing cold front.

More weather details to come

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