The weather for now is settled with cooler drier air being flung north on the western flank of the deepening low over the Tasman Sea leading to a refreshing shift in overall conditions throughout the state.

A few thunderstorms about the far northeast this evening should be gone by 9pm with the drier air surging into southern QLD.

That sets the stage for below average temperatures tonight, some areas getting down into single figures for the first time in many months, since last Spring which would be a welcome shift, but also a sign of the times, the weather is starting to turn, the first hints of the Autumn chill is maybe in the air. But as always at this time of year it is short lived.

Humidity is forecast to rebuild over inland areas, not to the same levels as we have seen in recent times, but enough moisture is expected to return over inland areas to combine with a trough to see showers and thunderstorms return from this weekend. I wasn't thinking they would pack a punch but I suspect they might now, so moderate to heavy rainfall and gusty winds possible with storms over the northern and central inland. They may extend into the southern inland and through the southeast on Sunday into Monday but likely lose their potency.

Along the coast, the showers are expected to return from the weekend as the flow shifts from the south and into the east. That will stay in place through to next week.

The far west looks hot and mostly dry with the warmer weather spreading slowly eastwards in the coming week with a much warmer week on the way away from the coast.

Lets take a look


Rainfall Next 10 Days

Rainfall is expected to remain widespread at times along the coast but much lighter through this period as winds turn southerly and then into the southeast and east as high pressure moves into the Tasman Sea. There is a trough over the interior of QLD that will pick up some of the moisture and lead to scattered showers and thunderstorms over the interior of NSW with some of those producing moderate to heavy rainfall. The thunderstorm coverage will weaken next week but still linger next week with patchy falls about the state with no deep trigger in the state. The weather is expected to turn much warmer and drier ahead of a trough coming out of SA next week which could bring about another burst of showers and thunder but not overwhelming rainfall rates expected at this time.

Thunderstorms Forecast Thursday

Thunderstorms are forecast to develop over the Northern Tablelands and about the New England during the afternoon and evening, but no severe weather is expected at this time though moderate rainfall and gusty winds is possible. A very low chance for coastal areas during the afternoon.

DATA - Refer to video for more information relating to the short and medium term forecasts.

00Z GFS - Surface Pressure Pattern and Rainfall Distribution - Next 2 Weeks

The surface pressure pattern has begun to settle down with a high taking control of the weather picture over much of southern and western Australia. Drier air in the wake of the large low pressure system is expected to filter north over southern QLD with that airmass combining with the drier air to bring settled weather to many and cool starts on the next couple of days. For the west, we are seeing a hot airmass stay in place for the coming days and that will edge eastwards over the course of the next week so temperatures coming up for SA and into VIC and NSW with the humidity of the weekend which triggers the unsettled conditions over the eastern inland on by. The east coast seeing showery weather in onshore winds with no major lifting mechanism, so falls to remain light to moderate and no impact to flood zones. Heaviest rainfall and humidity will retreat to the tropics and this will be in line with the increase in showers and storms over the next week. We are still watching the MJO to see whether that gets it's act together to bring up rainfall chances over the northern third of the nation and whether moisture can seed troughs over the southern and western parts increasing the chance of Autumn Break conditions.

00Z GFS - Precipitable Water Values - Next 2 Weeks

The moisture content is expected to come down a notch for the east and southeast and through southern Australia and back into WA for the coming 2 days with drier and clearer skies. The humidity from QLD will likely move back south into NSW with that moisture then being eroded by drier warmer air coming in from SA and WA. So overall there is no long duration deep moisture layer that is set to bring about tropical weather that we have seen through Summer for large parts of the flood zones. Apart from low level moisture via onshore winds in the east, things are looking seasonal. Over northern Australia, the moisture also seasonal but we could see some of that moisture deepen and head south through the sub tropics and this if it comes south far enough, may be drawn into the jet stream bringing up the chances of cloud bands forming on top of the westerly wind belt try to move north in the medium term.

00Z GFS - Rainfall Accumulation - Next 10 Days

Refer to the video analysis for more information

00Z CMC - Rainfall Accumulation - Next 10 Days

Refer to the video analysis for more information

00Z GFS - Rainfall Accumulation - Next 2 Weeks

Refer to the video analysis for more information and the state by state fly around to bring your more context.

A closer look in - the numbers are more uneven in distribution throughout the region as we see no organised low pressure system at this time. But this could change quickly. More on that this evening.

More coming up in the models and all things rainfall update from 8pm EDT tonight.

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