NSW DRIES OUT BUT MORE RAINFALL COMES LATER THIS WEEK

We have a drying trend over the eastern inland with a cold dry airmass moving into the east following a wet and humid wintry week throughout the region. A months worth of rainfall has been observed in some locations and another fairly productive rainfall event is likely to unfold later on Friday and spread throughout during the weekend.


The weekend could be quite wet and windy over the southeast of NSW with a low pressure system at times being forecast by all models over the far South Coast or off Gippsland bringing windy rainy cold conditions to start the weekend. Some projections also bring a decent amount of snow to parts of the southeast as well.


GFS 00z Surface Pressure Pattern and Rainfall distribution next 16 days- Valid Sunday 4th of July 2021.

A low forms along a deepening trough later Friday into Saturday which quickly deepens off the South Coast of NSW driving strong winds and heavy rainfall. The Euro model had it this morning but does not have it this evening, however there is some chance of this scenario playing out given the synoptic pattern being signaled so something to watch if you are living through inland NSW or about the southeast. It could be productive. Then note the fast flow pattern with multiple strong cold fronts racing through southern Australia bringing widespread rainfall to the southern states.

Euro 00z Surface Pressure Pattern and Rainfall distribution next 10 days - Valid Sunday 4th of July 2021.

Significant discrepancy in the modelling for that low tonight, but that has been playing out most days this weekend, so I do think that will continue. But before then, reasonable follow rainfall is on the cards as moisture is drawn into the eastward moving trough. This time the moisture is coming from the northwest. Then note the larger front coming through western and south Australia during the latter part of the weekend and possibly bringing inland rainfall into western NSW.

Then we see the westerly wind belt move north and this will likely bring the coldest and windiest weather by far this winter. It could also be a drawn out period of wintry weather given the SAM is entering a negative phase and is lining up with potential moisture in feeds bringing up rainfall chances just outside of the 10 day forecast window.


So after a relatively quiet few days under high pressure and areas of frost and fog most days this week, the weather turns by Friday for inland areas, eases through Saturday, though possibly wet over the southeast before the winds become westerly and take the rainfall into a winter time pattern into the following week.


GFS Rainfall for the next 10 days - Valid Sunday 4th of July 2021.

Rainfall comes back quickly on Friday before moving southeast, then another front later in the weekend into early the following week brings rainfall chances up for inland areas west of the divide and back of the SA border.



Rainfall for the next 10 days - Valid Sunday 4th of July 2021.

Rainfall will be moderate during Friday through Saturday over inland NSW possibly more heavy about the southeast if a low forms along the trough, will keep an eye on that trend through the week. Showers increasing over coastal areas during the latter part of the weekend with rainfall possibly moving into western NSW during early next week. Before then it is looking dry and fine with cold nights.

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