The weather is drying out after the last of the showers over the inland cleared off overnight. There will be another shot of low level moisture moving in today which may squeeze out a few light showers but really, in comparison to the past few weeks, we will call it mainly fine.
The weather gradually becomes clearer from the north and northwest through the week, so clearance will take time if you are living towards the VIC border. But the weather looks drier for a while for the inland.
Finally we get to talk about the coast a little bit which has had no weather for about 5 weeks now. It has been benign in the shadow of the GDR in the westerly. But the weather will start to shift as per the pattern moving around. Southeast to easterly winds are likely to redevelop over the coming weekend and into next week.
Isolated showers are possible about the eastern seaboard, mainly north of Sydney to start with next week, it could extend down the coast towards the VIC border if the winds veer northeasterly. The showers will be more scattered the further north you go towards the QLD border.
Next week the showers will continue for the east coast while the high sits to the southeast. At this stage the frontal weather approaching from the west will likely fall away to the southeast, but moisture streaming in on the northern side of the cold fronts could bring in moisture from the northwest as well, so cloud may return with light rain.
But it is low confidence forecasting and I will have more to say on next week in the medium term forecasting.
Lets look at the modelling
12Z GFS Surface Pressure Pattern for the coming 16 days
Pattern is settling down for the coming week, we still have the colder weather over the southeast with an onshore flow through the southeast states. The weather will become drier over inland areas of NSW today with the showers contracting through VIC and coastal SA. The weather then becomes drier throughout the east for the good part of the next week with high pressure deflecting the frontal weather off to the southeast. Those fronts will bring the wet weather through WA from Saturday with some strong cold fronts coming through early next week with moderate falls. Clearly the wettest part of the nation will be the southwest of WA. The high will persist over the southeast Tasman Sea and finally send easterly winds back to the eastern seaboard, so showers developing for the QLD and NSW coasts with some moderate falls over QLD. The moisture will try to build up over inland areas. The moisture will build up over the northern tropics with humid weather increasing during the coming week.
12z GFS Rainfall for the coming 16 days
Drying out as expected for the southeast with the pattern settling. Perhaps one front next week might be able to bring a period of showery weather west of the divide, but the bulk of the showers in the short term will be over the east coast and coastal areas of VIC and SA. The showers may return with a weakening front this time next week. Otherwise it is looking settled IF GFS is correct. After the light showers today, the weather is dry for the inland for a while.
12z GFS Precipitable Water Anomalies next 16 days
The PW values are drying out for the nation, with the elevated values of recent days being pushed north. The dry air should win out over the coming days with the next surge of deeper moisture reserved for WA where the bulk of the rainfall will be. Moisture will likely be building up via the easterly winds will produce coastal showers this morning. Otherwise it is all eyes on the medium term where moisture starts to increase dramatically mid month onwards. More on that later.
12z Euro Surface Pressure Pattern for the coming 10 days
The weather also settling down on the latest Euro. Residual showers over the southeast over the coming few days will be the last of the wet weather for the south until we get the next batch of cold fronts coming into WA. The east coast will see showers developing over the weekend into next week with light to moderate falls. Then curiously the Euro still wants to introduce a northwest cloud band over WA bringing up rainfall chances for inland areas from mid month, where the GFS does not see it. More on that later.
12z Euro Rainfall for the coming 10 days
Rainfall limited to coastal areas as the inland begins to dry out. The weather essentially dry for the next 10 days over most of the southeast inland. Coastal areas will see the bulk of the showers and most of those will be light, moderate falls reserved for southeast VIC and parts of QLD. Otherwise this is traditional for a transition period.
12z Euro Precipitable Water Values next 10 days
PW values continue to modify and trend dry over much of the southern parts of the nation which is to be expected as high pressure dominates. The weather is expected to continue in this manner until early next week. Areas to watch will be the northwest and west of the nation and along the east coast, to see how the moisture builds over the coming week.
Rainfall for the next 10 days
Rainfall largely contracting to coastal areas over the coming few days, the inland essentially dry with only a low chance of showers next week. I will again keep most of the inland dry for now, but there is the chance of a change mid next week that could bring up the chance of light rainfall this time next week. The pattern shift continues.
More on the medium term weather coming up later this morning.