NSW - DRIER AIR SPREADING EAST, THE SEVERE WEATHER RISKS BEGIN TO EASE FOR THE STATE.

We are seeing the back edge of another severe weather event for the northeast and east coast with the low pressure responsible, beginning to move off in the coming 24hrs, picked up by a trough and weak front moving through southeast Australia. This will lead to the system strengthening as it moves away from the coast and bombing into a severe low pressure system in the Tasman Sea.


Widespread showers and heavy falls for the east and local thunderstorms along the Great Dividing Range is expected to feature for the coming day before a proper clearance takes place for much of you on and west of the divide.


Along the east coast, the low pressure system should stay out to sea, it could move west for a period Friday into Saturday, which may spark some heavier weather for areas from Newcastle southwards to the VIC border but at this time, the confidence is not especially high on that.


For inland areas, from now through to about the end of the period, many areas should be dry. There is a pool of colder air that will hover over the inland regions this weekend into next week, but with limited moisture, I am only forecasting a handful of showers and thunderstorms for inland areas.


No significant weather events exist in this period beyond the backside of the low in the east.


Lets take a look

FORECAST

Rainfall Next 10 Days

Rainfall is expected to ease along the coast from tonight but not clear. We will see more breaks in the rainfall for northeast areas where flooding is subsiding once again. The showers could still be moderate to heavy at times and gusty but they are likely to be shorter in duration and be found more frequently along the coastal fringe in the southerly flow. Over inland areas, we could see a few showers and storms again tomorrow with the trough and dry line moving through the southeast with one or two moderate falls, but from there, most areas turn drier. The instability is not totally gone this weekend for the region, but the air is drier and with high pressure closer to the region, it will put a lid on rainfall coverage for now. But these upper level systems need to be watched closely. There is a small chance that this upper level trough could increase showers for northern and central NSW again this time next week.

Thunderstorm Forecast Wednesday

Thunderstorms are forecast to impact the southeast, the ACT, through the Great Dividing Range and northwards into the northeast inland. Storms may be heavy at times in the northeast which may lead to pockets of flash flooding in saturated regions. Storms could also be gusty in the southeast and the ACT but the overall severe weather threat is low.

Flash Flood Risk Next 24hrs

The flash flood risk is settling down in the next day so tonight and into tomorrow morning before dawn, there could be some intense rainfall about the Mid North Coast and possibly the Upper Hunter, but it does start to decrease after dawn.

DATA - Refer to the video for further information and it is critical to keep check of the data sets to understand where the next major weather events are emerging from outside of this period. It may be quiet now but I am all about preparation and ensuring that information is shared with you as soon as it is available.


00Z GFS - Surface Pressure Pattern and Rainfall Distribution - Next 2 Weeks

The pattern is clearly shifting gears now to a drier pattern for many of us and that should be expected at this time of year and should not be of concern considering that we are approaching April and this is very much what I am looking out for. A 2-3 week period of settled, stable weather for the south of the nation is on schedule this year. And the tropics are also responding with the storms and showers decreasing in coverage too.

00Z GFS - Precipitable Water Values - Next 2 Weeks

The moisture post the low pressure system in the Tasman Sea is out of here so do expect there to be a drop in overnight temperatures and the risk of frost is not quite there yet for the plains but many areas will get down to the mid single figures over the weekend and into next week as a result. This weather pattern will continue to be with us until next week before temperatures start to rise as the high moves into the Tasman Sea. Many areas by the weekend are looking very much settled and calm from WA through SA and into the eastern states. Showers only found in scattered pockets over the east coast and over the northern areas. So this looks to be the driest weather we have seen since last August.

00Z GFS - Rainfall Accumulation - Next 10 Days

Refer to the video for more context and analysis

00Z CMC - Rainfall Accumulation - Next 10 Days

A little more aggressive on the rainfall over the southeast with the low sticking a bit closer through the weekend but I am not sure that it will verify quite like this.

00Z GFS - Rainfall Accumulation - Next 2 Weeks

Refer to the video for more context and analysis

A closer look in - the rainfall totals over the coastal areas are easing and if you are living in the south coast of NSW keep watch of that low in the Tasman as that low may creep closer to the coast which may increase showers and winds this weekend.

MEDIUM TERM

Moisture Watch Next Week - April 4-11th 2022

The moisture really gets swept out during the period with the likely area for moisture to remain deep is over the northern tropics and through the northeast tropics and low level moisture along the east coast via southeast to easterly winds. The drier air should remain over the southeast, eastern and southern as well as central inland areas of the nation. There could be a few ports of moisture coming in from the northwest Indian Ocean but these should have minimal impact with the backside of the large upper high kicking the moisture offshore. There will be moisture running through the tropical north and some of this may be drawn southwards into northwest QLD, but with the large high pressure system in play, this will suppress rainfall chances again.

Rainfall Anomalies - April 4th-11th 2022

Above average rainfall chances remain in place over the northeast of the nation with the persistent trough and potential for a tropical low to linger bringing widespread rainfall through the Gulf and into Cape York. Most elsewhere, though it is a dry forecast for most areas across the inland, this is quite normal and so no deviation to drier or wetter than normal is the right forecast. So it is what we call benign Autumnal weather which is great for those on the land getting things sorted ahead of the approaching seasonal changes into the cool season.

Temperature Anomalies Next Week - April 4th-11th 2022

Above average temperatures over the southeast of the nation and extending through central and eastern inland areas of the nation. The northern tropics also looking near to above normal with higher humidity values. Seasonal weather conditions over the east coast with onshore winds and the chance of showers. The weather over the west coast is expected to remain near seasonal for the most part, though eastern districts and through the central and northern interior regions could be leaning above average.

I will have more from 8am EDT, tomorrow I will review the rainfall data sets in the evening.


I just want to get tonight's heavy rainfall off the board and the model data to settle on how that low preforms in the east of the nation as that feature will have impacts for the rest of the nation including how much moisture is propelled northwards into the tropics and into the western interior and how the weather unfolds in the west, does the low in the east block the trough and moisture over the western and northwestern parts of the nation?

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