NSW - COLD WITH A FEW SHOWERS IN THE SOUTH CLEARING - WARMING UP LATER THIS WEEK.

And then we start to introduce more rainfall into the eastern inland of the nation with a humid flow developing and a trough entering the region, starting the cycle of unsettled weather once again.


The windy weather over the ranges will ease during Monday and the air temperatures will begin to improve from mid week, reaching seasonal values by the end of the week.


By the coming weekend we are likely to see more elevated temperatures and the chance of showers and thunderstorms redeveloping for inland areas. I think pinning down an accurate forecast in terms of rainfall and timing is still a few days off.


Lets take a look at the latest.

FORECAST

Rainfall Next 10 Days

Rainfall is expected to be quite lean away from the showery weather tonight over the southern inland. That should be gone by Monday afternoon. The weather pretty much rain free for most areas until the weekend when we see the onshore winds return with showers developing for the coastal areas and then patchy rain and thunder developing for the inland with a mid level trough later Friday into Saturday and then a better chance of rain developing from this time next week. There does not appear to be severe weather risks at this time in the forecast beyond the windy weather tonight.

Farmers and Graziers - Friday through Monday. The conditions are still very high risk tonight and tomorrow, though showers should decrease through NSW overnight.

Frost Risk Forecast Tuesday

Some chance of heavier frost over the ACT, eastern Riverina, the Southwest Slopes and Monaro country on Tuesday morning.

DATA - Refer to video for more details


00Z Euro - Surface Pressure Pattern and Rainfall Distribution -Next 10 Days

The pressure pattern begins to relax from Monday with the high over WA moving towards the east and we finally see the weather turn more stable over the southeast and east with easing showers and winds. Temperatures will remain below average for the first half of this week but the weather out west will be opposite. Warm to start but then tending cooler. The tropics hot and dry, could be some records once again (which plays well into the nation again turning more unstable into the medium term). A trough develops over the interior of WA with that system moving into the east during mid week, and finds better moisture rotating around a high, thanks to easterly winds developing. This trough will deepen over the latter part of this week, but part will pass through the southeast on Friday, another part will hang back over WA and SA through the weekend. It is tricky to pin down which feature will bring more rainfall. The GFS shows more rainfall in the second feature where the Euro has better falls on both systems for eastern WA, SA, VIC and NSW. The Euro below is much wetter and I am not quite drawing these totals yet but it is something to watch. Regardless the nation turns more unsettled and humid as advised last week, from around the 19-20th of November and persist to the end of the month. Also the Euro does not quite have the tropical weather offshore northern Australia like the GFS and CMC so again that feature may be something to watch as well this week.

00Z Euro - Precipitable Water Anomalies - Next 10 Days

The drier airmass over the nation will continue to dominate through mid week, but notice the moisture returns over WA and again over northern and eastern Australia. The weather will turn more humid as we go through the latter part of the week and that is thanks to an injection of moisture passing from the Indian Ocean into the western and central interior. The east will see easterly winds pump moisture into the eastern inland and the tropics also getting more active. Overall the nation is turning more humid and building up to levels we saw in the past 10 days. So again we have a small window of drier air and less rainfall, but it is not lasting long.

00Z Euro - Precipitable Water Values - Next 10 Days

The PW values are below average. The moisture values will remain low as we track through the coming 3-4 days but the moisture values flip rapidly and by next weekend, we will be back to many areas in seasonal conditions but a tropical feeling with more rain and thunderstorms impacting large parts of southern and eastern Australia and the tropics. These moisture values will continue to increase over the back half of the month.

00Z Euro - Rainfall Accumulation - Next 10 Days

Refer to video for more details on short and medium term rainfall

A closer look in - this forecast will change rapidly this week - so stay up to date.

More details coming up after 9pm tonight on all things models and the rainfall potential.

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