NSW - COLD NIGHTS CONTINUE WITH BRIGHTER DAYS COMING. DRY DAYS MUCH OF THIS WEEK.

ANALYSIS

Not a whole lot of change to the forecast this week, with a decent high-pressure ridge, stable air and dry air combining to bring the driest week of weather for the state all year!


There are going to be some cold fronts glancing the state over the coming week, and some weaker signals for the rainfall to return to the inland in the medium term (from day 8 onwards).


So, while it is quieter, it makes the forecasts less complex but that won't last forever.


SHORT TERM

High pressure ridging through the state will beat down the ridge and lead to drier and more stable conditions. Colder nights with local frost to continue this week for inland areas and a gradual increase in the daytime temperatures with the winds veering into the northwest.


The stronger system impacting WA later this week will be the one to watch in terms of rainfall for NSW through the weekend into next week, with showers increasing for the southern half, isolated showers for the northern parts as well with lighter falls. The overall pattern very typical for June.


LONG TERM

Some stronger frontal weather is possible in the day 10-15 range as the long wave trough moves from WA through to the east with a higher chance of stronger cold fronts impacting the southeast and eastern parts of the nation. But until then, the weather is fairly settled which is the best news for many of you working your butts off getting things sorted!


AREAS TO WATCH

The Southern Annular Mode is expected to remain negative for the next week to two weeks, which may support further frontal weather across Southern Australia.


The other area to watch, you guessed it, moisture pouring in from the Indian Ocean and floating offshore the NT and QLD. Can this be drawn southeast to kick off the cloud bands again?


WEATHER VIDEO PM - MONDAY 13TH JUNE 2022

FORECAST

Rainfall Next 10 Days

Fairly quiet for the next 5-7 days across the state with little rainfall expected, not seeing rainfall becoming a high chance across the state until we get to the end of the weekend with a stronger front moving through. Some moderate falls are possible over the southern and southwest slopes and nearby the ACT but lighter falls further north. The rainfall will be patchier and lighter from this time next week with the front passing over the state. If we see widespread rainfall developing over the northwest of the nation streaming into the frontal weather passing through our state, then rainfall totals will increase.

A broader view shows that the rainfall is starting to be drawn in further north, but most areas should be dry through the coming 7 days north of Broken Hill to Dubbo.

Frost Risk Forecast Tuesday

Cold night with clear skies, lighter winds and drier air also the longer nights, combining to produce frosts, some locally severe over elevation in the east. Conditions clearing through the day and the risk moderates from Wednesday with more wind in the region.

MEDIUM TERM

June 20th-27th 2022

Rainfall Anomalies

White means seasonal expectations at this stage across the nation with poor signals at the moment for a drier or wetter bias compared to what is seasonally expected at this time.

Temperature Anomalies

Temperatures are forecast to remain above average over the northern and central parts of the nation with a northwest flow with drier air still expected to feature over the northern parts of the nation, which is efficiently heated at this time of year. Generally seasonal weather expected most elsewhere with poor signals for either warmer or colder weather across the east and west.

DATA - Refer to the video for further context for the short and medium term.


00Z GFS - Surface Pressure Pattern and Rainfall Distribution - Next 2 Weeks

Refer to the video for more information on the daily break down to cut down the reading, if there is anything of significance that needs highlighting it will be placed here and replace this text.

00Z GFS - Precipitable Water Values - Next 2 Weeks

The area of interest is now much moisture spreads across the nation through the week from west to east and how much of that gets involved in the frontal weather that is looking to ramp up in response to the SAM being negative for a protracted period. Note that the moisture profile in the medium term over northern and northeastern Australia remains elevated and this could see a cloud band form over much of eastern QLD leading to below average temperatures and rainfall returning.


00Z GFS - Rainfall Accumulation - Next 10 Days

Refer to the video for more context and analysis

00Z CMC - Rainfall Accumulation - Next 10 Days

Refer to the video for more context and analysis

00Z GFS - Rainfall Accumulation - Next 2 Weeks

Refer to the video for more context and analysis

A closer look in - rainfall numbers as expected increasing from next week with the low-pressure system developing over SA this weekend and into next week so that will certainly be a focus to watch out for on the charts and see if the models can converge on this idea in the coming days. Ag Areas should note this is the best chance of more widespread moderate rainfall in the outlook period. Some of the rainfall could be above average into the medium term, but the confidence is low.

More coming up from 8pm EST with a look at the models and rainfall



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