NSW - COLD NIGHTS AND DRY DAYS INLAND - CLOUDIER SKIES FURTHER SOUTH, CLEARER EAST AND NORTH

ANALYSIS

A nice and easy forecast for now with high pressure dominating the weather pattern for the state and leading to cold nights with frost chances increasing and dry and mostly sunny weather for the north, partly cloudy for central areas and cloudier skies towards the VIC border through the weekend. East coast areas also dry and settled with seasonal weather.


SHORT TERM

A series of cold fronts sweeping through the southeast over the coming 2 days will reinforce the showery weather for VIC but not much else inland, just a persistence of the southwesterly flow. The high will eventually get to be over the state by the holiday Monday and likely linger here for a good chunk of next week with warmer northwesterly winds and a shift to above average temperatures developing.


LONG TERM

We will be seeing a lot of wet weather developing in the west of the nation associated with the developing cold fronts and moisture streaming in from the Indian Ocean with a series of large cloud bands moving through with rainfall chances increasing over the next week. This will be moving into the Bight later next week and we should start to see rainfall chances increasing from the latter part of next week and more likely into the weekend over the southeast and eastern inland.


So, make the most of the drier weather developing over the state in the coming week as it will not last so long.


AREAS TO WATCH

The Indian Ocean Dipole being in negative phase will be the driver supporting rainfall spreading throughout the interior from northwest to southeast. The impacts of this moisture spreading into cold fronts will be the wild card throughout the medium to long term.


The Southern Annular Mode tending negative is shifting the rain bearing westerly wind belt further north leading to windy weather with showery weather, this rainfall could become more widespread if the moisture is ingested into frontal weather and there have been some models supporting this idea


WEATHER VIDEO PM - THURSDAY 9TH OF JUNE 2022

FORECAST

Rainfall Next 10 Days

A big bag of nothing is excepted for large areas of the inland for the coming 7 days which is expected to take in the long weekend and into much of next week. Showers may continue to push through the southeast states, some of that creeping into the Southern Riverina and Southwest Slopes over the weekend but falls less than 2mm for most areas. The next rainfall chances are expected to be found over the Bight mid-week, that could bring cloud into the state this time next week, but ultimately the next rainfall of any significance is forecast from next weekend.

Further to the west, the rainfall is expected to pick up mid next week over parts of SA and that could begin to sweep eastwards as we move through the back half of next week and into the weekend, so make the most of the drier weather. A few showers may clip southern areas this time next week.

Frost Risk Early Next Week

With a large high sitting over the southeast inland, there is the chance of frosts becoming widespread and possibly severe through Monday morning until about Wednesday morning. Be weather aware and growers are advised to make preparations for the frosty conditions. This is seasonal for June, but some of the frost could be severe, something we are not used to this early in the season. More specifics on the charting for the event will be available from Sunday.

MEDIUM TERM

June 16th-23rd 2022

Rainfall Anomalies

Rainfall anomalies above the norm remains a higher chance over the SWLD where persistent frontal weather and deep moisture is forecast to linger through the region. Mainly seasonal values elsewhere as the weather from the west, comes into the south and southeast with that wetter bias likely to be observed over SA and VIC as well as pockets of NSW/ACT expected towards the end of the month.

Temperature Anomalies

I warned that the blue shading would be removed in the forecasts moving along this week for the medium term and a sharp shift back to warmer than normal weather is expected for large chunks of the nation as a broad northwesterly flow developing, pumping that warmer air from the northwest down into Central Australia and into the southeast and eastern inland.

DATA - Refer to video for more information and the model comparison and context about all the forecast products you see from me


00Z GFS - Surface Pressure Pattern and Rainfall Distribution - Next 2 Weeks

More information can be found in the video content to bring you the very latest context to the information being shared with you.


00Z GFS - Precipitable Water Values - Next 2 Weeks

The moisture content being above normal will continue to be found in WA and that streaming through the Indian Ocean through the jet stream and into the western and central interior from the middle of next week. This may lead to more widespread cloud and rainfall developing across the nation from later next week. Until then, dry and colder air to persist over the east and southeast for the long weekend and into next week and the chance of more widespread rainfall not on the horizon, until we see the moisture kick out the dry air, which will happen, but looking more likely from mid next week through parts of SA and then the southeast from later next week into the weekend.



00Z GFS - Rainfall Accumulation - Next 10 Days

Refer to the video for more context and analysis

00Z CMC - Rainfall Accumulation - Next 10 Days

Refer to the video for more context and analysis

00Z GFS - Rainfall Accumulation - Next 2 Weeks

Refer to the video for more context and analysis

A closer look in - widespread showers are easing over the southeast of the nation but the inland areas grading from cloudy over northern VIC and southern NSW through to partly cloudy for areas further north to clear along the QLD border and along the east coast. Clearer weather is expected to develop throughout for next week, but we could see a few showers return from later next week and that looks to persist into the medium term and I suspect we will see widespread falls extending inland so dismiss the drier weather unfolding on this chart.

More coming up from 8pm EST with a look at the models and rainfall.



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