NSW - COLD NIGHT AGAIN BUT WARMER DAYS TO COME AHEAD OF SHOWERS IN THE SOUTH LATER THIS WEEK.

ANALYSIS

While cold fronts are glancing the south of the country bringing showers to the southern VIC and SA, they are far too south to have impact on the state with a dry ridge over the region, holding firm throughout the remainder of this week.


Another relatively cold night is on the way, not as cold as last night, but certainly further frost is possible once again with the clear skies and light winds a feature over the northern parts of the state.


Dry weather will continue into Wednesday for the most part, there is the chance of a few light showers over the far south near the VIC border later in the day or at night.


SHORT TERM

The cold fronts will begin to shift a little further north through the coming week, and eventually, they will be far enough north to start having an impact on the state from about the weekend into next week.


We have seen in recent days that one of these fronts may cut off into a low pressure system leading to widespread showers and thunderstorms developing on the leading edge of this feature from next week, with the low pressure system becomes slow moving over the southeast keeping the unsettled weather in place.


LONG TERM

The longer term offers more frontal weather for the southern parts of the nation, and once again some of this could start to glance the eastern inland of the country. An upper trough could also move through central parts of the country mid to late next week, and if this does happen, we are likely to see a widespread band of cloud developing over the northern and eastern parts of the nation leading to more widespread rainfall chances for NSW and QLD.


With the frontal weather continuing to be the main driver for wet weather across the country, the door may be open for an upper trough moving through the interior.


AREAS TO WATCH

The upper trough that may move through the central and eastern interior throughout the middle to latter part of next week could bring about a decent slab of moisture in from the northern and northwest of the nation leading to a better chance of rainfall for inland areas, which may connect with frontal weather over the southeast.


With the SAM remaining negative and strongly negative, the frontal weather is expected to become much more vigorous and stronger as we go through towards the end of the month.


WEATHER VIDEO PM - TUESDAY JUNE 14TH 2022

FORECAST

Rainfall Next 10 Days

Rainfall is starting to tick up now on the charts and smoothing out the data sets is tricky, where to draw the line of most beneficial rainfall remains the issue, but the better rainfall chances are further south you are, and the lighter rainfall looks to be over the northern areas with the far northwest remaining dry. There could be an increase in showers along the east coast with the backwash of a low pressure system deepening well offshore east of Norfolk Island this weekend. The better chances of rainfall arrive for the inland of the state from early next week with the rainfall clearing through by this time next week. There may be another burst of rainfall with a stronger system and moisture in feed through the northern and eastern inland leading to more widespread falls developing once again towards the end of the month but that remains to be seen.

The rainfall is more focused along the Great Dividing Range and points west through NSW with some of that rainfall moderate over the southern areas during the early part of next week and heavier rainfall into Victoria. Some light to moderate showers is possible along the east coast of NSW.

Limited rainfall is expected to feature over the northern inland parts of NSW and some moderate showers possible this weekend into early next week over the Northern Rivers and Mid North Coast.

Frost Risk Forecast Wednesday

There is likely to be further frost risk is expected feature over the northern inland parts of the state overnight and a higher chance towards the Northwest Slopes. Severe frost unlikely at this stage.

MEDIUM TERM

June 21st-278h 2022

Rainfall Anomalies

White means seasonal expectations at this stage across the nation with poor signals at the moment for a drier or wetter bias compared to what is seasonally expected at this time.

There may be that drier bias developing across parts of inland NSW with the negative SAM phase in place leading to drier than normal weather spreading throughout.

Temperature Anomalies

Temperatures are forecast to remain above average over the northern and central parts of the nation with a northwest flow with drier air still expected to feature over the northern parts of the nation, which is efficiently heated at this time of year. Generally seasonal weather expected most elsewhere with poor signals for either warmer or colder weather across the east and west.

DATA -More information in the video to bring the below charts and data sets to life and also to bring context and moderation to your expectations.


00Z GFS - Surface Pressure Pattern and Rainfall Distribution - Next 2 Weeks

I will note that we are finally starting to see the moisture passing through from northern Australia into the east and southeast as expected with an upper trough coming in from the west. This will chop and change but that idea of rainfall returning large areas of the inland born out of the higher moisture loads north of the NT and QLD is one that is gaining traction. See how it pans out.

00Z GFS - Precipitable Water Values - Next 2 Weeks

Deeper moisture still sits over in the west of the nation with the higher chance of rainfall found there for much of the period, but moisture values have crept up over the southern parts of SA and that is moving into VIC and southern NSW in the coming days. There may be some deeper moisture that emerges with a stronger front passing through western parts of the nation from later this week that travels to the east next week and lingers. Watching the medium term with the moisture surging southwards on this particular run over QLD, NSW and VIC. But will have more on that in the rainfall update later this evening.

00Z GFS - Rainfall Accumulation - Next 10 Days

Refer to the video for more context and analysis

00Z CMC - Rainfall Accumulation - Next 10 Days

Refer to the video for more context and analysis

00Z GFS - Rainfall Accumulation - Next 2 Weeks

Refer to the video for more context and analysis

A closer look in - I discuss this further in the video but the bulk of what you see here over the interior falls in the medium term, in the shorter term, rainfall is focussed over much of southern SA, VIC and southern and central NSW and the ACT and points west. Essentially dry over the northern inland of NSW but maybe some showers on the east coast this weekend.

More coming up from 8pm EST with a look at the models and rainfall, see you then.

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