The weather turning colder through the south of the state today with a few showers about and some local thunder across the inland. The patchy rain and thunder will continue for central and eastern areas overnight with a few showers developing in the cold airmass that follows with the chance of small hail nearer the Victorian border, with snowfalls developing about Alpine areas.

This has occurred before this early in the season and does not indicate a brutally cold Winter.

The cold air will continue to lead to areas of local frost over the weekend as winds turn calm and skies stay clear in dry air, some of the frost heavy about the southeast and ACT.

Next week, temperatures begin to improve back to seasonal values but the humidity will begin to move above normal values as the wind veer into the east. A deepening upper trough with areas of rain and thunderstorms in QLD will begin to move south and there is a really good chance that by mid next week, widespread rain will emerge on forecasts and showers along the east coast leading to widespread falls north of Sydney.

This event next week does carry the risk of producing severe weather issues for parts of northern and eastern NSW. The rainfall is likely to be more patchy in coverage over the southern areas and closer to the Victorian Border at this time.

Another rain event over the west of the nation is expected to also approach towards the end of this forecast window and we could see increasing falls across the western and southern areas with this feature as well.

Let's take a look - Apologies upon the length but it deserves more than what you see on the news at night when there are severe weather issues across the nation.


Rainfall Next 10 Days

Rainfall is forecast to remain over inland areas through the next 2 days with mainly light falls. The rainfall over the higher ground will fall as snow above 1200m. The showers and cold weather will clear the inland from the weekend. The next rainfall event over the inland of QLD will start to descend further south during next week and light to moderate rainfall is forecast to develop about northern areas from Tuesday with showers developing along the coast. The rain is likely to spread further southwards into Central districts and then into the Southern districts there after. It appears the further south you go the lighter the rainfall becomes. Heavy falls are possible about the northern and eastern areas between Tuesday and Friday with the risk this could lead to flooding. The next rain event emerging through WA is expected to move towards SA later next week and into the southeast inland next weekend which could also bring another burst of rainfall to the west and south while helping to knock the rain out of the east. But timing remains tricky on this system and will be watched.

Thunderstorm Forecast Thursday

Isolated showers and thunderstorms in a broad cold airmass are possible on Thursday and extend along a weak trough through to northeast parts of NSW. No severe weather is expected.

Farmers and Graziers - Mid Week

The highest impact for stock through this period will be in Victoria and southern NSW.

Frost Outbreak - Late Week

Watching the numbers closely as we could start to see widespread frost developing for inland areas of NSW, some of that could tend severe through the southeast near the ACT above 600m but will evaluate the risk mid week of severe thresholds. For now this is a heads up forecast.

Riverine Flood Risk - Wednesday-Friday

The heavy rainfall potential next week may lead to riverine flooding redeveloping over a large area once again, but it is more likely about the east coast between Cardwell and .Coolangatta at this time. Flash flooding via thunderstorms also quite likely for inland areas. This could move into NSW as well in coming updates so keep watch.

Severe Weather Watch - Monday to Friday

The risk clips the northern parts of the state but at this time, the worst of the weather is expected over northern parts of the state.

MEDIUM TERM - May 11th-18th 2022

Rainfall Anomalies

Higher rainfall ongoing from the persistent easterly flow and a slow-moving trough in QLD. The above average rainfall may contribute to flooding potential through the region. The above average rainfall risk does exist for the remainder of the eastern inland thanks to heavy moisture in the region and the possibility of a trough lingering. The west will see more frontal weather with moisture streaming southeast ahead of frontal weather leading to broader rainfall events to continue. Seasonal values elsewhere for now, but for SA, watch the weather emerging through WA which could flip your rainfall fortunes quite quickly.

Temperature Anomalies

Bit of a mixed bag now being proposed across the country with a warmer tongue of air being trapped over the southeast in a broad northwest flow ahead of frontal weather bringing below average temperatures to the west of the country. Heavy rainfall and cloud cover over parts of QLD leading to below average temperatures but as you head north from there into the tropics, the warmer than normal weather is forecast to continue under an upper ridge.

DATA - Refer to video for more information and the model comparison and context about all the forecast products you see from me.

00Z GFS - Surface Pressure Pattern and Rainfall Distribution - Next 2 Weeks

More details can be found in the video but the cold outbreak over the southeast of the nation in the short term. Then the major rainfall potential over the northeast of the nation and east. Another rain event is possible over the southwest of the nation with frontal weather drawing in moisture from the Indian Ocean which could break that mini dry spell in recent days. That event offers better rainfall chances spreading across southern Australia into the medium term.

00Z GFS - Precipitable Water Values - Next 2 Weeks

Reasonable moisture load over the northern parts of the nation but in the absence of low pressure in the short term, just patchy cloud and patchy falls expected into the weekend. But watch what happens over the north and northeast through the coming week with the medium term offering up moisture loads up to 400% above normal! Now if that was to occur, we would be seeing a monstrous amount of rainfall through the medium term but watching closely and not overly sold on that idea. Over in the west moisture loads will improve as we see the northwest jet stream bringing up rainfall chances. Drier air will likely be overwhelmed by moisture through this period so I do think many areas will see fairly reasonable chances for rainfall.

00Z GFS - Rainfall Accumulation - Next 10 Days

Refer to the video for more context and analysis

00Z CMC - Rainfall Accumulation - Next 10 Days

Refer to the video for more context and analysis

00Z Euro - Rainfall Accumulation - Next 10 Days

Refer to the video for more context and analysis

00Z GFS - Rainfall Accumulation - Next 2 Weeks

Refer to the video for more context and analysis

A closer look in - the rainfall could become excessive given some of the moisture loads being forecast by the models so these numbers will change. Patchy falls in the coming days but the bulk of the rainfall is forecast from next week.

Plenty more ahead on the rain events to come in the medium term and a look at the Indian Ocean and the impacts building through Winter 2022. Thats coming up from 8am EST.

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