NSW - COLD AGAIN TONIGHT BUT THE DAYS ARE GETTING WARMER AHEAD OF RAIN.

And there could be some OK rainfall totals with this band coming through during the weekend. As outlined in the morning update, the cloud band could be quite extensive, but the rainfall coverage will be better the further southeast you are through the state, but west of the divide this time.


Signals remain for follow up rainfall, but before we get to that, it is going to be quite cold early next week with a gusty dry southwester and the risk of frost increasing early next week.


Lets take a look.

Rainfall for the next 10 days

Rainfall again contained mainly to the event coming through Friday into Saturday and with the follow up cold front during Sunday into Monday, mainly for those in southern and southeast NSW west of the divide. Then we track a drier colder airmass throughout the state which will limit rainfall chances moving through most of next week, a stray shower along the coast in southerly winds is possible. Moisture will increase towards the last week of the month introducing the rainfall to the state.

Northwest NSW

Central West

Northern Inland

Southeast NSW

Southwest NSW

Frost Risk Thursday Morning.

Elevated risk of frost west and north of the GDR through NSW and VIC, but the most widespread frost likely along the divide. The day tomorrow warming rapidly over inland areas with a northwest flow.

Fog Risk Thursday Morning

The fog could be quite dense through Thursday morning mitigating the frost risk, as the airstream has turned a little more southeast to easterly today, inserting low level moisture into lower levels this afternoon. The fog will clear during the later morning over the east but lift as cloud cover, clearer skies further west.

Raised Dust Risk for Friday into Saturday.

Gusty winds developing inland thanks to the battle between the hot air and the cold air will see the dry topsoil lofted into the atmosphere with reduced visibility and air quality. Rainfall that falls could turn muddy in NSW during Friday night into Saturday.

DATA


Euro 00z Surface Pressure Pattern - Next 10 days

The surface pressure pattern again is in good agreement with the Euro with a large high moving east making room for a front over the southeast to slide through, dragging moisture out of the northwest, and leading to a rain band to form over the southeastern inland. Otherwise the north is turning dry with a dry southeasterly surge coming through the NT and northern WA. This weather likely remain unchanged through most of next week. The only follow up rainfall of any note comes through during Monday with another cold front with light falls and colder air. The main feature over the coming period is the variation in temperatures lurching from one extreme to the other. The tropics will become more humid later in the period and over the western inland, there could be increasing temperatures and humidity just outside of this period to lift rainfall chances as mentioned after about the 24th for the nation.

Euro 00z Precipitable Water Anomalies - Next 10 days

Great modelling on the moisture coming in from the Indian Ocean, perhaps the driver is finally starting to wake up and influence conditions. The air sadly ahead of the system is dry in the lower levels and this is leading to the above average temperature through SA and not much rainfall, the moisture still expected to be lifted up by the front racing over the southeast on Saturday with better rainfall prospects breaking out over the southeast inland. Otherwise the nation is in dry air for most of next week as another large scale upper high takes full control. Moisture tries to return on the periphery of that upper high through northern and western parts of the nation.

GFS 00z Precipitable Water Anomalies - Next 16 days

You can see the moisture is a little deeper with the system coming through the southeast during the weekend and then the drier air a lot more widespread through the country come next week. Note the moisture building after the 10 day window. It is all coming down to timing....can troughs and or frontal weather interact with it, the moisture is there...

Euro 00z Rainfall - Next 10 days

Rainfall lean nationwide away from the southeast, that clearly is the heavier rainfall as you could see from the surface pressure pattern. Once we get the systems off the board next week, the nation is generally dry for a while. Maybe rainfall coming back later in the period over the northern and western parts of the nation. More on that coming up after 9pm.

Again I will have an update on the models with regards to rainfall coming up after 9pm tonight so be sure to check that out.



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