NSW - CLOUDY WITH A SPOT OF RAIN FOR THE FAR SOUTH - WARMER DAYS AHEAD - RAIN NEXT WEEK.

ANALYSIS

There has been some cloud and a few showers along parts of the VIC border today with mainly light falls more nuisance than anything. The rest of the state is feeling pretty good today with a bit more sunshine that recent days a westerly flow bringing up temperatures.


A procession of fronts rolling through the westerly wind belt is forecast to bring more inclement weather next week for southern and central areas, so until then, most areas should be drier and more stable.


But along the east coast showers may develop with onshore winds as a backwash trough wraps around a deepening low east of Norfolk Island, this triggering a southerly shift for a period Saturday into Sunday.


SHORT TERM

So as mentioned, there is not a whole lot to watch other than the isolated showers along the coast over the coming weekend before that clears by the early part of next week.


The more significant system once the high moves out to the east is the chance of a stronger front moving through with scattered showers and some thunder from Monday onwards.


Moderate rainfall is possible with this feature early next week and there is the potential for follow up showers with further frontal weather or troughs working around the low over Bass Strait or near Tasmania.


LONG TERM

Watching the frontal weather over southern areas with a westerly wind regime that should be with us until the end of next week, so further showery bursts are possible for southern and central parts of the state.


Otherwise mostly dry weather for northern areas and over parts of the coastal areas with the westerly wind regime.


AREAS TO WATCH

Also of interest is the potential for moisture to pour southwards into the eastern and southeast inland of the nation with an upper trough moves over Central Australia leading to a broad band of cloud with widespread rainfall developing over QLD, NSW and VIC. This has appeared on some of the global models for the end of the month, but the forecast confidence remains low.


The Southern Annular Mode remaining strongly negative could shoot up colder air in the medium too, meeting the moisture surging southwards into the country leading to those rainfall chances, but with the SAM negative for the period, frontal weather is also likely to feature for southern Australia.


WEATHER VIDEO PM - WEDNESDAY 15TH JUNE 2022

FORECAST

Rainfall Next 10 Days

Not a huge amount of rainfall for the remainder of the week and into the weekend, yes there will be some coastal showers but really impacting the eastern 10km of coastal areas of NSW north of Sydney. The light rainfall over the southeast inland west of the divide tonight is forecast to clear overnight and Thursday morning. A stronger system is expected to approach the state from Monday next week, with a band of showers and thunderstorms and periods of showery weather to follow. This looks to have higher impacts over the southern and central parts of the state west of the divide, maybe some light rainfall is expected over northern parts of the state but more cloud than precipitation at this time. Watch the medium-term forecasts for more guidance about the chance of rainfall coming from the north and northwest towards the end of the month as it will come and go from the charts so coincidence on that remains low.

Rainfall is focussed for those areas exposed to the westerly wind regime and we could see rainfall developing in the medium term in a more widespread context if we see a low pressure system develop over the interior and then spreading southwards.

Frost Forecast Thursday

There is the chance of some light to moderate frost patches over the northern and central inland north of the more robust wind profiles over the south of the state which will help to stave off frost formation. The overnights coming up through the next week should be frost free from Friday onwards.

MEDIUM TERM

June 22nd-29th 2022

Rainfall Anomalies

I know it may be frustrating to see a lot of white on the board but until there is higher confidence on that northern rainfall event, the nation as a whole look to be sitting at seasonal rainfall expectations through the end of the month, with once again the caveat being on that rainfall emerging over the tropics in medium term in future data runs, so watch closely.

Temperature Anomalies

Cooler bias strengthening for parts of the eastern inland once again with a cold pool of air riding behind a cold front later next week then sitting over the eastern interior, continuing to buck the trend of climate models that were suggesting somewhat warmer conditions than what we have observed in the east. Seasonal temperatures out west but the warmer weather over the northwest will continue with dry air.

DATA - Refer to the video for more context on the short and medium term. Notes will be provided under any of the graphics below to highlight weather of concern.


00Z GFS - Surface Pressure Pattern and Rainfall Distribution - Next 2 Weeks

Refer to the video for more information on the short and medium term and also the current trend for rainfall spreading across the nation in the medium is of low confidence. The southeast is looking the wettest as we move through the coming week with frontal weather to stay there.

00Z GFS - Precipitable Water Values - Next 2 Weeks

The moisture over the west of the nation has now migrated over the southern parts of the country and into the southeast with troughs and fronts running into this leading to widespread falls in the short term. As mentioned this morning, the position of the trough and upper features over northern parts of the country in relationship to the very high moisture load over the northern waters will lead to higher rainfall chances over the north and east, but where....no one can tell you so keep watching.

00Z GFS - Rainfall Accumulation - Next 10 Days

Refer to the video for more context and analysis

00Z CMC - Rainfall Accumulation - Next 10 Days

Refer to the video for more context and analysis

00Z GFS - Rainfall Accumulation - Next 2 Weeks

Refer to the video for more context and analysis

A closer look in - more on this coming up at 8pm tonight but the rainfall numbers into the medium term are low confidence and the system in the short term also of low confidence passing through SA into VIC/NSW mid next week.

More coming up from 8pm EST with a look at the models and rainfall, I will only share information that is in reasonable agreement as too much is too confusing and I only want to share what is plausible at this time, so stay tuned for that.


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