It has been gloomy west of the divide today with another shot of low level moisture moving north via the southwest to westerly winds, that is thanks to a ridge of high pressure coming in from the west. That ridge extends over northern NSW but the westerly winds under the high is bringing in the gloom. That may continue for the coming day or so.
The weather over the east has been much clearer and in the shadow of the GDR with near seasonal temperatures.
The cloud will begin to decrease during Friday and the weekend, much brighter throughout with light winds turning northwesterly.
During the weekend, the weather will trend warmer through the inland, still cold with a frost risk. The east coast on the other hand will start to see the moisture return in a southeast to easterly flow. The bulk of the weekend should be dry but early next week a few light showers may return to the north coast.
Next week the easterly winds will continue over the coastal fringe but the weather will remain mostly fine. The shower activity along the coast. There is some chance from this time next week the shower activity may increase as the flow becomes more east northeasterly and marginally unstable.
At the same time, the weather over the inland will remain mostly and warmer with a northwest to northerly flow. Frontal weather over the Bight coming from WA could link up with that moisture from the northeast flow bringing another band of rainfall through inland areas once again.
Tuesday 10th of August 2021.
Moisture in the northeast flow could be lifted into areas of rainfall as a front races through the southern states. That may see widespread rainfall develop again on and west of the divide during mid next week.
Medium term we covered off today, moisture is expected to increase over the inland areas of the nation, with humidity building up over the tropical north and potentially via northeast to easterly winds. That may rainfall chances to increase through mid month which is again being modelled this evening.
00Z GFS Surface Pressure Pattern for the coming 16 days
The pressure largely unchanged from this morning throughout the nation with the high the dominant feature for all states and territories for the coming few days. Drier skies over the inland as reflected in the pressure and rainfall forecasts but the onshore winds around the high will be responsible for the gloom in the southeast to finish the week, the showers and moisture that builds over the eastern QLD and northern NSW coast from the weekend if not next week. But the high will see an improvement in weather conditions for large swathes of the country with temperatures on the rise and that may continue into next week. Now frontal weather for WA is still expected with strong winds and moderate rainfall developing from Saturday. The showery weather increasing from next week with stronger frontal boundaries moving through in a cold westerly wind. Those fronts may bring showers to coastal SA with those fronts possibly linking up with moisture in the east to bring widespread showers or rainfall in about a week over VIC, NSW and southeast QLD. We still have moisture pooling over the north and west of the nation in the medium term.
00z GFS Rainfall for the coming 10 days
Rainfall numbers are unchanged for the first 4 days of the outlook with the wet weather contracting to coastal areas. Then we have high pressure that will dominate the eastern states. Showers clear VIC and low cloud lifts by the weekend as the high rolls through and shifts the winds into the northwest. Over QLD and NSW, the winds may shift onshore southeast to easterly through the weekend as the high takes a trip to the southeast so moisture increasing with showers developing for the east coast. Some of that moisture may be captured by a front that will bring showers to areas of SA and then those showery areas increasing over VIC, NSW and southern QLD if the front can capture the moisture in the northeast flow. So the next widespread rainfall event could be this time next week.
00z GFS Precipitable Water Anomalies next 16 days
As outlined in great detail in the medium term forecasting, there is little skill in specifically forecasting beyond about 7 days right now and my rainfall forecasts reflect that. The moisture however will continue to build over vast areas of northern, western and eastern Australia. It is coming down to what low pressure trough or front will be the first system to lift the moisture and where. But inland rainfall chances are lifting from mid month.
00z Euro Surface Pressure Pattern for the coming 10 days
Euro very similar nationally across the nation over the coming 4 days as per the GFS. Frontal weather will be approaching the west of the nation while the southeast states clear out by the weekend. A large high will set up camp next week over the east with only one front at the stage to watch coming in from WA through SA mid week and then into the southeast states with showers and or patchy rainfall, but the high should rebuild rapidly after that system moves through into late next week. The moisture as you can see continues the on again off again run for the medium term, but moisture as you can see below is building still mid month onwards and I expect to see rainfall return in the medium term over the inland of the nation.
00z Euro Rainfall for the coming 10 days
Light showers and drizzle through the southeast inland will clear towards the coastal areas of VIC and SA over the coming 24hrs. This will see the inland of NSW clear and the inland of QLD will remain dry for now. The easterly winds will redevelop during the weekend and next week bringing moisture back to the east coast and so showers will develop in response to that. Some of that moisture may be drawn inland and then into the eastern inland of NSW to prop up the rainfall coming in from the west this time next week. Showers will be patchy through western NSW and VIC as well as SA but could increase for central and eastern NSW under current guidance so something to watch.
00z Euro Precipitable Water Values next 10 days
Really no difference over the coming week with the dry air being overrun by the moisture that is building over the inland areas of the nation. That moisture is now being held back over parts of WA and surging through QLD in this run, it will change in the next run. But the message is still the same, more humid weather developing for northern Australia lifting rainfall chances for the back half of the month.
Rainfall coming 10 days
Rainfall has crept up a bit thanks to the moisture being drawn southwest in northeast winds next week ahead of a cold front moving in from the west. Rainfall may be moderate once again on and west of the divide mid next week. Before then we have the chance of showers over parts of the coast later this weekend into next week, but falls at this time generally less than 8mm for many locations. The heavier falls north of Newcastle. Otherwise the western inland may remain dry through mid month at this stage, but it is low confidence forecasting even in the day 7-10 window at the moment.
Another look at the moisture building through northern Australia during the middle parts oft the month, coming up tomorrow along with all your state forecasts.