NSW - CLOUDY FOR THE SOUTH BUT THE NORTH WILL SEE SOME CLEARING.

More low level moisture coming in from the south and west overnight with the high pressure moving in from the west acting to keep the low cloud in place for another day. Over the north, the air is drier and along the east coast, the air is also drier so clearer weather there today.


Clouds clear during the weekend with a much drier airmass descending over the region with northwest flow developing. That flow pattern beginning to see temperatures lift from the below average values of the past few days.


Next week we still have a front approaching that could bring a burst of showers or patchy rainfall mid next week, and also some moisture is still lingering out in the medium term with widespread rainfall possible mid month onwards.


It is a nice quieter period, so lets have a look at modelling


12Z GFS Surface Pressure Pattern for the coming 16 days

The pressure pattern is settling further today, though the moisture is now trapped under a stable airmass, so low cloud thicker the further south you go. The weather brightens throughout the state from tomorrow and moreso over the weekend into next week. The next front is expected during mid next week with a band of rainfall pushing through the southern and central parts of the state. The weather is expected to turn showery over the east coast early next week that will help draw in the moisture into the frontal passage as it approaches from the west. Still have the rainfall and moisture increasing over the northwest inland during mid month. It will change again this evening but it is still there.

12z GFS Rainfall for the coming 16 days

A dry 5 day period for inland areas before the rainfall returns next week. Coastal areas should see showers from later this weekend through mid next week before the winds veer back to the northwest. The main rainfall on interest really lay in the medium term with the moisture building over the inland of the nation. Trending for that rainfall to develop over WA. But it will continue to chop and change.

12z GFS Precipitable Water Anomalies next 16 days

PW Values continue to remain unchanged, with the dry air over the inland being overrun by the moisture during the medium term. In the short term, where the slightly elevated PW values are over southern parts of the nation will be where you can find that low cloud deck. There will be an increase of moisture over the east coast with the easterly winds returning so showers are a good chance over the east. Then the moisture comes back in over the west with a front this weekend through next week with widespread rainfall. The moisture from that feature falls apart somewhat as it heads east. Moisture in the medium term becomes excessive over inland areas and as you can see moves south. The tropics stay humid throughout the rest of August on this current track.

12z Euro Surface Pressure Pattern for the coming 10 days

Settled weather for southeast states and eastern inland with the high ridging in. The moisture under the stable airmass keeping a deck of low cloud in place with some light showers the further south you go and if you are along the coast. The inland trending brighter as we go through the outlook with a good looking weekend on the way. Then the winds turning easterly over the eastern seaboard brings showers back to the east but the high responsible for that, clears the southeast and south of the nation. Temperatures rise ahead of a cold front that will introduce showers to the south and patchy rainfall for the eastern inland.

12z Euro Rainfall for the coming 10 days

An essentially dry 5 days for the southeast inland, mostly dry for the eastern inland. The weather over the southeast may be cloudy for a number of days, but the modelling showing light falls at best now. The showers develop along the east coast with some showers developing, but the best of the it staying in QLD north of Hervey Bay. Then we watch the frontal weather coming in mid next week to see if that can be accompanied by moisture from the northwest or tap into moisture from the northeast to easterly winds left over by that weak burst of weather on the east coast.

12z Euro Precipitable Water Values next 10 days

The PW values are largely unchanged from overnight on the Euro. The moisture will clear the southeast with dry air drawn in via northwest winds this weekend. The east coast seeing an increase in low level moisture in easterly winds driving some showers. The weather turns wet over the west with the next surge of moisture out of the Indian Ocean. Then the tropics and northern parts of the nation becomes more humid, though the confidence in moisture placement remains low with it moving around. I have alluded to this continuing for the coming few days

Rainfall for the next 10 days

I have kept the rainfall forecast unchanged from last night as it is largely unchanged on all modelling so just be aware that this benign period of weather is expected to see limited rainfall opportunities as the high pressure drifts south. The pattern likely to stay relatively unchanged until mid next week. Still keeping an eye on the wetter signal that sits outside of this forecast period.


I will have a look at the medium term moisture again later this morning as there are some interesting signals continuing in modelling and I will have the latest on that later on.




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