NSW - CLIMATE OUTLOOK - APRIL THROUGH JUNE 2022

This is a dedicated video and outlook to see what is happening through NSW through the coming 3 months ahead.


Lets get straight into it and see the areas of interest as we work through the remainder of Autumn and come into Winter.

FORECAST

%chance of exceeding or not exceeding the median rainfall for April to June 2022

The chance of exceeding rainfall through the next 3 months is heavily favoured for areas over the east coast and extending inland to the Great Dividing Range. This is in relation to the waning La Nina phase which looks longer to come down from the La Nina phase to Neutral values, this delaying the easing of the wet signal for the east and adjacent inland. This could also promote the persistence of the positive SAM phase leading to more onshore rainfall events and the higher risk of East Coast Low development. For the western inland, depending on the SAM phase, if it remains more positive than neutral, then we could be looking at a drier run, with less rainfall events, but when it rains, it will be heavy as Broken Hill found out recently. The rainfall would be more uneven in distribution for a while and then tend more widespread through May into June on and west of the divide when the westerly winds return. The signals for above average rainfall carry a moderate to high confidence. The confidence in forecasting further to the west is of lower values.

%chance of exceeding of not exceeding the median temperatures for April to June 2022

Cooler in the east with onshore winds and higher rainfall potential with the persistent SAM, the lack of sunshine so far this year noticeable by locals I am sure and the cooler weather has been a consistent feature. The cooler weather will be accompanied by more humid air so we will likely see overnights remain above average however. Inland areas from the GDR westwards, temperatures sit around normal for the period, neither hotter or cooler overall but the chance of above average temperatures through the period for the Upper and Lower Western Districts remains elevated.

Key Points

Refer to video for more information

To get the most out of these Climate Outlooks, it is good to follow the daily short and medium term forecasts. Also I do update the Climate Outlooks 2-3 times a week in 6 week outlooks and once every 1-2 weeks I will do seasonal outlooks as well. So these forecasts do get tweaked often.


If you need more tailored forecasting, please get in touch at karllijnders@weathermatters.org - I have a few spaces free for those who are needing some more advice and I can quote according to your needs.

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