NSW - BECOMING UNSETTLED EARLY IN THE WEEK IN THE EAST - DRY WEST

The seasonal spring time pattern starting to appear with the rainfall chances starting to become a little more frequent across the east coast as easterly winds slowly return and snuff out the westerly winds of recent days yet again. The SAM is currently moving into a positive phase this week, not as aggressive as the last event, but it will be enough to bring up rainfall chances for the east coast.


For the west, a dry northeast to northerly flow for a lot of this week is expected, ahead of a trough moving in from SA. The moisture out of WA and SA will be thinning out a bit but the trough and moisture will combine to bring up the chances of a few showers and thunderstorms for the state as we see a milder change next weekend.


The rainfall this week, much more lean over inland areas for a while but the east coast, as mentioned in multiple outlooks, expecting to see the bulk and bias of rainfall as we go through the period.


Lets take a look

Rainfall Next 10 Days

Rainfall is expected to be patchier than last week but more confined the further east and north you go. The rainfall derived out of thunderstorms and showers so the rainfall as you guessed will be uneven in distribution. The next change expected to lift the chances of rainfall through the south and west is a pressure trough during later this week which will also bring scattered showers and thunderstorms to the state with again patchy falls.

Thunderstorm Forecast Monday

Thunderstorms are likely to develop near a trough over southern inland QLD and into northern NSW with instability increasing to lift the chances of severe thunderstorms during the afternoon and evening, especially inland of the coast where wind convergence occurs on the spine of the hinterland. Some of the storms could be gusty. Otherwise elevated storms are possible inland of the coast in Victoria with the chance of some gusty winds. No severe weather expected with these.

Flash Flood Risk Monday

Flash flooding is a low to moderate chance with strong to severe thunderstorms that form over the hinterland during the afternoon and evening, some of these may make the coast later in the day, but should be in the phase of weakening and more likely back through SE QLD.

Damaging Winds Risk Monday

Strong gusty winds are possible with thunderstorms over the inland during the afternoon and evening up over northern NSW. Straight line winds from the stronger storms with heavy rainfall will create outflow boundaries which could whip winds up to 90km/h. These outflow boundaries can often form more storms in the region.

Large Hail Risk - Monday

A low risk of large hail over the hinterland during the afternoon and evening but the main risks tomorrow are heavy rainfall and gusty winds. No tornado risk at this stage.

DATA


Euro 00z - Surface Pressure Pattern and Rainfall Distribution - Next 10 days

Things are settling down from this week over the interior which will extend into western parts of NSW and most of SA with an upper high setting up camp. We are seeing a strong low pressure system and cold front coming into SWLD of WA which will drive a large rainband over the state during Tuesday with that system running into a blocking pattern in the east mid week. That blocking pattern will set up camp from tomorrow with scattered showers and thunderstorms on the trough passing in from the west and then sitting offshore during mid week. That trough may form into a low bringing coastal showers and thunder through mid week. Then the remnants of the trough will pass from SA in dry fashion and hit moisture over the east during later this week with another round of showers and thunderstorms developing for NSW and QLD. The north is expected to be unsettled with widespread showers and thunderstorms with moderate to heavy falls. That moisture will slowly seep through the west of the nation on the western face of the upper high over SA keeping the moisture over WA with storms developing.

Euro 00z - Precipitable Water Anomalies - Next 10 days

The moisture is expected to deepen over western parts of the nation with a strong cold front passing through from the Indian Ocean with a deep moisture supply. The moisture is expected to thin out as we track the system through the BIght and into the southeast, unfortunately you can see the block in the Tasman Sea deflecting the moisture south of the mainland. Over the east and north, deeper moisture will pool as the trades return and the tropical northeast to easterly flow establishes. The weather over the west will also become more humid as the moisture travels west and into the southwest of the state through next week. You can pick up the upper high over SA ingesting the dry air from the Tasman Sea as the low pressure that forms later this week moves off to NZ leaving a mild and dry airmass under the high keeping the eastern inland quiet for now.

Euro 00z - Rainfall Accumulation - Next 10 days

As expected, you can track the dry slot over inland SA and western NSW as the upper high sits over the eastern inland with not much rainfall expected. The coastal areas of northern and eastern Australia will see the bulk of the rainfall from showers and thunderstorms. The bigger rainfall event is over the southwest of the nation with a strong cold front and low pressure system drawing in a deep moisture load into a cold front, producing the most widespread rainfall. Otherwise the rainfall will return to the southeast and eastern inland of the nation towards the end of the month.

A closer look in.

GFS 00z - Rainfall Accumulation - Next 16 days

Refer to video for more at the top of the page.

More details to come tomorrow morning from 7am.


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