The weather is expected to turn more sultry and unsettled for Australia Day with showers and thunderstorms spreading throughout the western districts into southern and southeast areas. The airmass becoming more unstable as a trough broadens from SA, through VIC and into VIC with an easterly wind feeding the trough.

This sets up a week of humid weather, a trough in the region with showers and thunderstorms over much of the state and onshore winds triggering showers and below average temperatures with cloudy skies.

The weather unlikely to change much until we see a dynamic change move through the southeast mid next week. But that could set up a wetter phase for the east coast as well.

So plenty of wet weather on the way, and humidity too

Lets take a look


Rainfall Next 10 Days

Rainfall remains above average for many areas, but it will come down to thunderstorm placement as to who gets the heaviest of the falls through this outlook period. Along the coast, the weather is humid and cloudy, your rainfall likely to return from the weekend into next week, and there is a chance of some heavier rainfall totals as we move through next week if a trough links up with onshore easterly winds. There is still the risk of heavy rainfall leading to flash and riverine flooding over the far northwest with the tropical moisture possibly seeping southeast from the NT and northeast SA. So will watch that risk. Otherwise it is an unstable week of weather across the state.

Additional heavy rainfall may need to be watched for another round of minor flooding later this week into the weekend.

Watching the heavy rainfall threat over the northwest as well.

Thunderstorm Forecast Wednesday

Thunderstorms are expected to become more extensive over central, southern and western NSW during the afternoon and evening. Thunderstorms carry the high chance of flash flooding and damaging winds during the afternoon and evening, with the flash flood risk the main issue for the coming days as this slow moving trough works it's way through the state

Flash Flood Risk Wednesday

Flash flooding remains a moderate to high risk with slow moving thunderstorms during the afternoon and evening. Thunderstorms may become multicellular and train over the same regions during the afternoon and evening, especially about the Upper and Lower Western districts.

Damaging Winds Risk Wednesday

Damaging winds are expected to feature with the stronger storms in the far west of NSW with some chance of destructive winds with the heavier thunderstorms that form over the far west of the state.

Large Hail Risk Wednesday

Large hail is a low chance but the risk is there if storms can get up and become more organised and multicellular.

DATA - Refer to video for more on the daily breakdown for the short and the medium term

00Z GFS - Surface Pressure Pattern and Rainfall Distribution - Next 16 Days

The pattern in the short term largely unchanged in the short term. Severe weather over the south and east will gradually contract further east over the coming days but possibly return next week. The heavy rainfall risks leading to flooding over the inland of the nation remains in the short term. The monsoonal low over the NT may spread into WA and bring up rainfall chances for a drier WA, this would then shift rainfall chances across SA and VIC into the medium term. The east coast, keep an eye on the trough next week, we could see a significant rainfall event develop between the easterly winds and the trough that hangs up in the medium term. Heavy moisture will sit over QLD and this will lead to persistence forecasting, so not much change to what you have right now.

00Z GFS - Precipitable Water Values - Next 16 Days

The very deep moisture is with much of the nation for the coming 10 days before we start to see the pattern shift. Clearly the GFS prints out the impact of what a tropical low does running through WA. That is an idea that is on the board but not well supported. The monsoon trough may snap back and offshore at the end of the run increasing the cyclone risks over the north of the nation.

00Z GFS - Rainfall Accumulation - Next 10 Days

Refer to video for more information.

00Z CMC - Rainfall Accumulation - Next 10 Days

Refer to video for more information.

00Z GFS - Rainfall Accumulation - Next 16 Days

Refer to video for more information.

A closer look in - more details in the video but watch the medium term for moisture to merge with troughs over the east in easterly winds.

More details coming up tonight with a look at the full model suite and the rainfall projections for the short, medium and long term.

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