NSW - ANOTHER COLD NIGHT ON THE WAY - DRY WEATHER THURSDAY.

ANALYSIS

The last 24hrs we have started to feel the drier air move through the eastern inland of the nation leading to a clearer sky through northern and western areas and along the east, coast with temperatures below average. The weather is supportive of further light to moderate frost in the mornings and then dry and mostly sunny weather.


The further south you go, the more cloud you will encounter, but that will continue to slowly contract southwards through the weekend as the high comes closer.


It is a quiet period and most likely the driest week of the year coming up so make the most of the drier spell.


SHORT TERM

A few cold fronts are forecast to pass through the southeast in the days ahead, but the axis point of the long wave trough being over the Tasman Sea, means that the bulk of the wet weather with this forecast to be found over the Victoria with only a few light showers and drizzle making into the Riverina and Southwest Slopes and Alpine areas will see further light snow.


Dry weather most elsewhere with the high pressure controlling conditions over the central and northern districts and the westerly wind flow will keep the east coast drier and sunny for the long weekend.


LONG TERM

The next change is forecast to approach the west of the nation tonight and that will set up a procession of fronts coming into the Bight early next week with moisture spreading through the southern states, but the frontal weather is likely to weaken as the moisture approaches the southeast and east of the country. That means the rainfall will largely be confined to southern SA, southern VIC.


A second stronger system is expected to push through WA from Sunday and move swiftly behind the lead system and this may bring more cloud into the state with a third system following bringing the next chance of rainfall later next week for western and southern parts of the state. Some areas could see a dry 10 day period coming up which would be welcome for many.


AREAS TO WATCH

The Indian Ocean is forecast to play a huge part in the forecasts in terms of rainfall in the west of the nation, with moisture from the elevated SSTs south of Indonesia spreading south into the jet stream then running into cold fronts. This will ultimately spread into the south and east of the nation from mid month.


Otherwise, it is a very quiet forecast for many of us in the coming week.


WEATHER VIDEO PM - WEDNESDAY 8TH JUNE 2022

FORECAST

Rainfall Next 10 Days

Rainfall is forecast to be sparse throughout the inland as dry air, ridging and a more stable airmass remains located over the state. The westerly wind regime also meaning the east coast stays dry for a while as well. Showers may continue with light falls for the southern Riverina and the Southwest Slopes but most elsewhere, just cloudy and cold through to the weekend. The next major rainfall maker looks to be knocking on the door all the way at the end of next week, with a large cloud band moving into SA bringing rainfall to southern and southeast Australia, that moves northwards and brings an end to the dry spell for us. So make the most of it if you are in the world of cropping!


A broader look suggests the better rainfall chances are found over the southeast but the rainfall chances I think will creep further north over the coming week, so enjoy the dry period while it is lasting!!

Frost Risk - Monday to Wednesday Next Week

A delayed forecast to the risk of widespread frost, some possibly severe. The ridge of high pressure is now expected to form over the southeast inland from Sunday and this will allow temperatures to fall below -5C in parts of NSW and down to -2C in pockets of elevated QLD, eastern SA and northern VIC.

MEDIUM TERM

June 15th-22nd 2022

Rainfall Anomalies

The drier weather is expected to continue over the northern and eastern areas of the nation thanks to the presence of high pressure leading to settled weather. The west is looking wetter with the position of the moisture and the cold fronts combining together to bring the higher rainfall chances.

Temperature Anomalies

Warmer days are on the way as promised and it will take place once we see the high move into the Tasman Sea with a northwest flow dominating the nation, that will be in response to the rise of the westerly wind belt. So drier weather then warmer weather developing ahead of the cold fronts bringing colder shift towards the end of the month.

DATA - Refer to the video for further information on the daily breakdown.


00Z GFS - Surface Pressure Pattern and Rainfall Distribution - Next 2 Weeks

As mentioned, head to the video to track the daily breakdown through the short and medium term to cut down reading time.

00Z GFS - Precipitable Water Values - Next 2 Weeks

The big item on the board tonight is the influence of all that high moisture loads in the Indian Ocean and the waters north of the nation as well, being drawn into the next wave of frontal weather coming through the south and west of the country in the medium term. That will be chopping and changing from run to run, but ultimately that is your next weather maker on the board for the country as a whole. In the west in the short term, large moisture content involved with the trough will lead to widespread showers and thunderstorms over the days ahead.

00Z GFS - Rainfall Accumulation - Next 10 Days

Refer to the video for more context and analysis

00Z CMC - Rainfall Accumulation - Next 10 Days

Refer to the video for more context and analysis

00z Euro - Rainfall Accumulation - Next 10 Days

Refer to video for more information and analysis

00Z GFS - Rainfall Accumulation - Next 2 Weeks

Refer to the video for more context and analysis

A closer look in - as I have been stating for days, the weather modelling would be turning wetter over the south and southeast with the developing moisture load interacting with the strengthening negative SAM phase. These numbers will bounce around, but we now have a window of dry weather so make the most of it.

More coming up from 8pm EST with a look at the models and rainfall.

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