Showers are still drifting through this evening with a trough passing to the southeast of VIC. The moisture is hanging on over inland SA and through NSW this evening and into the weekend, becoming inactive before it spreads throughout again ahead of a stronger front passing over Sunday.
We can see the moisture there running along the upper level west to northwest wind flow, and while it is elevated and mainly in active, it will come into play during Sunday. Fair weather cumulus over the east coast shows the lower level moisture through northern NSW.
The front will pass through VIC and NSW during the Sunday night through Monday with the areas of rain spreading out over a large part of eastern VIC and throughout NSW with moderate falls about. Some heavier falls are likely for those in southeast NSW and across the northeast of VIC.
Before we get onto the low pressure system, the temperatures will drop dramatically and a sheep graziers advise should be issued officially but for all stock owners in the region, be prepared for significant cooler weather developing.
Well above average temperatures on Sunday with some centres up to 10C above normal for this time of year.
Fast forward to Monday - and the same areas could be up to 12-15C below average!
A low pressure system is possible on the front as it passes through to the east of NSW. Now if that low forms quicker over land, there could be some heavier falls over the GDR and points to the west through southern inland areas.
The weather will likely dry out from Tuesday afternoon over inland areas with a colder drier surge working it's way north. This will contract the showers back towards the east coast where a southerly flow will continue.
For areas over the southeast of VIC and through southeast coastal areas of NSW there could be some heavier rainfall linger through mid week in strong southerly winds, as the flow pattern remains unstable and the potential for wrap around rain bands may be in place.
There is a risk to stock in these conditions next week.
The low looks to move away mid to late week with a high taking over the weather across the inland with frost risks increasing throughout the eastern and southeast inland.
Watching cold fronts over parts of WA later in the outlook period which may make an approach this time next week.
00Z GFS Surface Pressure Pattern for the coming 16 days
Dry and warm weather for most of the eastern inland this afternoon but some patchy rainfall has been observed through SA and VIC today. The patchy rainfall along the cold front sliding southeast is being left behind in the jet stream moisture that surged in from the northwest Indian Ocean, that is expected to continue to remain over SA and through parts of western NSW and northern VIC this weekend. That will hang back waiting for the stronger cold front to pass through during the early part of next week leading to areas of rain and colder weather breaking out across the southeast and eastern inland. Now beyond the front rolling through, the models are not quite in sync, where GFS moves the low off quicker and forms it offshore, while the Euro continues to form the system over the land but slows the system down bringing more rainfall to the region. Most other global modelling supports the Euro solution. Beyond that a trough may hang back over the eastern inland driving scattered showers through NSW and parts of southern QLD with cold air aloft. The weather then turning drier over SA through much of the eastern inland during later next week into the weekend ahead of frontal weather which will bring rainfall back to WA from mid next week and that activity will slowly move across during the latter part of the month.
00z GFS Rainfall for the coming 16 days
Rainfall will be patchy and light through the coming 24 hours as a weak trough passes through southeastern Australia, otherwise most of the nation is dry, apart from FNQ and the SWLD. Then the major rainfall event will dominate the proceedings during Sunday through Tuesday with the most widespread falls through southeast Australia particularly over VIC and NSW. A low pressure system will likely bring further rainfall to southeast VIC and southern NSW with moderate falls possible if the low is close enough to the coast. The rainfall then contracts east followed by well below average temperatures. That drier air will remove rainfall chances for much of SA, inland VIC and NSW through QLD. The dry surge will reach the NT and WA next week with the chance of a few showers along the dry surge. Then frontal weather will come back to the west mid next week and that will then run across the south of the nation with the low moving off the east coast by mid next week.
00z GFS Precipitable Water Anomalies next 16 days
Dry air is surging through the west of the nation following the cold fronts that have passed through, but over in the east, the moisture is deepening as a trough and cold front begin to move towards the northeast during the coming 48hrs. That front will link up with moisture and draw further moisture in over northern and eastern Australia leading to a large rain band with moderate falls for VIC, NSW and southern QLD. Then the low that forms on the front, will send a shot of dry cold southerly air through eastern and central inland areas of Australia. That will settle conditions down for the nation mid next week. The next surge of moisture is expected to approach from the west along cold fronts that are poised to be the focus of the next batch of rainfall. The wild card this week coming, the moisture over the east may combine with a trough over the NSW ranges could lead to showers continuing into mid week.
00z Euro Surface Pressure Pattern for the coming 10 days
The surface pattern is largely unchanged for the next 4 days with the moisture hanging around for that large scale rainfall event over the southeast. A burst of cold air will surge north through the nation during Tuesday flushing the moisture out and leading to drier weather for inland areas. For the southeast of NSW and VIC there may be further rain with moderate falls thanks to southerly winds wrapping around the low pressure system that deepens offshore. The west will see another wave of frontal activity during the middle of next week, some of that may drift eastwards however the forecast confidence remains low as pointed out this morning. The tropics should dry out during the middle of next week.
00z Euro Rainfall for the coming 10 days
The rainfall event over the southeast is the largest event on the board with moderate rainfall expected to pass through later Sunday through Tuesday. Then dry weather for inland areas, with coastal areas of NSW and eastern VIC. The rainfall may be moderate at times. The north of the nation may see a few showers about as well with tropical sultry air passing through early in the week then flushed out by the dry surge charging north. Then the rainfall focus shifts back to the west with a few a cold fronts to pass through with moderate rainfall returning.
00z Euro Precipitable Water Values next 10 days
You can see the moisture surging into the strong front passing through the southeast during the latter part of the weekend and into next week before dry air takes over for a good part of next week and spreads throughout the nation. The next wave of moisture approaches over northwest Australia and injects more rainfall chances back to WA. Trade winds also return to QLD and this could see moisture return for the eastern seaboard. Overall there is moisture to work with in the medium term and the modelling not quite connecting it together tonight with the low pressure systems and fronts to produce rainfall. The elements are there.
Rainfall for the next 10 days
Weather very similar for both VIC and NSW with the main system coming through later this weekend in VIC and Monday for NSW with the bulk of the rainfall expected to then clear off by mid week with a drier airmass. Rainfall amounts will bounce around in the coming 24 to 36hrs surrounding the position of the low that is deepening offshore NSW and VIC so keep watch as this could evolve in the coming days. Then frontal weather from WA may approach later in the week into the weekend with more rainfall possible in the outlook period.
I will have further updates tomorrow morning with the rain event in the east clearly the biggest focus.