NSW AND VIC EVENING UPDATE ON THE WEEK AHEAD.

Wild and wintry conditions for some locations on the divide and western plains with widespread showers and storms through NSW, gusty conditions and hail also spicing up the weather this evening. Snowfalls developing down to low levels overnight and Saturday, reminding us that after a mild week with higher humidity, that winter is still here.


It is similar in VIC with widespread showers, turning to rain areas over the northeast of VIC, that is turning to snow above 1000m tonight and lowering overnight. Thunderstorms with squalls and hail for coastal VIC expected to persist overnight and extend inland during Saturday with moderate to heavy falls over parts of the south. A bleak Saturday and Sunday coming up for the state.


Next week, the region will still be under the influence of winter westerly winds, but a high to the north will move through northern NSW during the early part of the week, clearing the inland areas, while the westerly winds keep the showery weather going. The next major change to roll through NSW and VIC will be mid next week.


00z GFS Surface pressure pattern and rainfall distribution - next 16 days - Friday 16th of July 2021

The pattern is vigorous, rainy westerly flow continues tonight and into about Sunday morning for most of southern NSW and all of VIC. The hail and thunder risk will slowly contract south and east through Saturday as the air warms, thanks to a weak ridge. The next system will increase the existing showers over southern VIC and move them back over much of VIC and into southern and central NSW during Monday afternoon into Tuesday with moderate falls possible. Keeping an eye on that low pressure system mid week which may bring rain back into western NSW and northwest VIC, that could surprise. Then we have more fronts and more moisture so rainfall developing from later in the week throughout VIC and southern NSW, some of that could creep up to northern NSW.

00z Euro Surface pressure pattern and rainfall distribution - next 10 days - Friday 16th of July 2021

Good agreement in the modeling for the coming few days, and even with the low pressure coming out of WA for mid week as well. We may see some heavier rainfall with that feature coming up mid week. Later in the sequence good agreement again with another more dynamic weather event developing over the southeast, but again it is a week out and is likely to change.

00z GFS Precipitable Water Values - next 16 days - Friday 16th of July 2021

Moisture values are holding nicely this weekend with decent rainfall about until the air dries and warms up in response to high pressure. Next week keep an eye on that moisture off to the west as it may be absorbed into the westerly and a low pressure system that could increase rainfall for VIC and then southern NSW once again, including parts of the dry western inland. Plenty of rainfall opportunities taking us to the end of the month.

00z Euro Precipitable Water Values - next 10 days - Friday 16th of July 2021

Good agreement in the placement of the PW over the next 10 days but I will point out that the moisture is being trapped more and more over WA and continuing to build offshore the west coast even at the end of the run, which may elevate rainfall chances for the end of the month into August. So the wet phase may return for inland areas and persist for coastal areas of VIC and NSW. The east coast will remain on the drier side which is quite normal for this time of year.

00z GFS Rainfall next 10 days - Friday 16th of July 2021

Rainfall, heaviest over those areas exposed to a westerly wind regime. You can see the impacts of that westerly influence on the mountains and through VIC rainfall distributuon. More rainfall next week is likely at regular intervals. Some moderate falls are likely for those same areas with heavy falls possible for those mountain areas. There is a chance of a major weather system within the next 10 days but pinning that down has no skill at this time.

00z Euro Rainfall next 10 days - Friday 16th of July 2021

A broader view of the region does show widespread falls attached to the westerly wind profile with that easing through the weekend in NSW but persisting over southern and mountain VIC. The rainfall increasing early next week with an upper trough and then extending north and east again through Tuesday. Watching that low mid week could bring some follow up inland rainfall if it behaves. Then a much stronger and dynamic weather system with another round of windy wet weather this time next week into the weekend.

Rainfall next 10 days - Valid Friday 16th of July 2021

Widespread falls tonight and through Saturday will produce moderate to heavy falls through the region, though falls will begin to contract out of the north of NSW during the weekend. More rainfall developing next week with multiple bursts expected, but the rainfall totals will chop and change over the coming few days as we get a better handle on the systems passing through.

Rainfall next 10 days - Valid Friday 16th of July 2021

Rainfall coming down for the region with a drier look for early next week but there is some chance the rain may return later next week with a stronger system, so this will change the rainfall spread if it verifies. I am keeping it dry for now, but this may change by Sunday if the modelling improves on that signal.

Rainfall next 10 days - Valid Friday 16th of July 2021

Heavy falls ongoing through Alpine areas will lead to areas of flooding in the coming week. Heavy snowfalls also underway with blizzards. Elsewhere widespread showers continue tonight and tomorrow with moderate falls but then a break for NSW while the showers continue over southern VIC. The rainfall increases again early next week for this region with a few dribbles getting to the east coast. A much stronger system approaches later next week with moderate to heavy rainfall possible.


Rainfall next 10 days - Valid Friday 16th of July 2021

Rainfall expected to increase overnight and Saturday as the flow turns west to southwesterly then southwesterly with moderate to heavy falls possible. Then showery most days through the outlook period with not much movement in temperatures.

More details to come.

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