NSW AND QLD - STATE OF PLAY - SEVERE STORMS

An active morning across parts of southeast and east central QLD with a batch of strong storms over the Capricornia and the southeast inland.


The storm activity expected to increase later this morning and afternoon and turn to areas of moderate to heavy rainfall.


Satellite Imagery

It is clear to see where the trough is laying at the moment, and this trough is progressing eastwards today. Ahead of it, the warm moist air has erupted into clusters of thunderstorms, some of those severe. There are a pair of supercells offshore the Capricornia coast this morning, which is an indication of what may occur further this afternoon so stay weather aware.

Thunderstorm Update

The trough is moving eastwards steadily today but ahead of it, onshore winds are feeding the unstable air, allowing for showers and thunderstorms to rise. A cluster of severe storms has moved offshore the Capricornia coast. Further storms are expected to continue for the southeast inland of QLD and into northeast NSW. Severe thunderstorms are likely to redevelop ahead of the trough.

Further thunderstorm development is expected ahead of the trough in the clearer and unstable air on and immediately east of the trough later this morning and early this afternoon. Some of these could pack a punch. If the storms ahead of this region increase in coverage, the rain cooled air may snuff out the potential for this region to turn severe. So watch radar trends.

Thunderstorms are likely to develop near a trough over southern inland QLD and extend into northeastern NSW with instability increasing to lift the chances of severe thunderstorms during the afternoon and evening, especially inland of the coast where wind convergence occurs on the spine of the hinterland. Some of the storms could be gusty with large hail and heavy rainfall. Otherwise elevated storms are possible inland of the coast in Victoria with the chance of some gusty winds. Possibly some thunderstorms in the far southeast of NSW this evening as a southerly change moves into the region. No severe weather expected with these in southern NSW.

Damaging Winds Risk Monday

Strong gusty winds are possible with thunderstorms during the afternoon and evening up over northeastern NSW. Straight line winds from the stronger storms with heavy rainfall will create outflow boundaries which could whip winds up to 90km/h. These outflow boundaries can often form more storms in the region ahead of the trough. Very low risk of a strong wind gust over southern inland NSW.

Large Hail Risk - Monday

The hail risk has increased with the latest data sets that have come in this morning and looking at how the storms have performed so far. The risk will be right on the trough as it flares more storms early this afternoon.

Flash Flood Risk Monday

Flash flooding is a low to moderate chance with strong to severe thunderstorms that form over the hinterland during the afternoon and evening, some of these may make the coast later in the day, but should be in the phase of weakening and more likely back through SE QLD and northeast NSW.

Thunderstorm Forecast Monday

We have already had a batch of elevated severe thunderstorms move through the Capricornia this morning and they are offshore. Further thunderstorms are expected to move through the eastern and southeastern areas of the state this afternoon with all modes of severe weather possible.

Damaging Winds Risk Monday

Strong gusty winds are possible with thunderstorms over inland parts of the southeast of QLD. Some of the storms are expected to be severe with wind gusts of 100km/h possible

Flash Flood Risk Monday

Flash flooding is a low to moderate chance with strong to severe thunderstorms that form over the hinterland during the afternoon and evening, some of these may make the coast later in the day, but should be in the phase of weakening and more likely back through SE QLD than northeast NSW.

Large Hail Risk - Monday

Hail risk has increased during the past 12 hours with a colder upper atmosphere and more instability available. Already have had hail reports from the Capricornia coast this morning. The hail risk will peak during the early to mid afternoon and march towards the coast in scattered pockets. Be weather aware today.

More details coming up throughout the day if required, but stay close to the warnings and radar trends today!!