This is the state of play today for NSW and QLD and where the weather will fire and when.


Note the motion with low pressure southwest of Victoria. That is helping to kick off the rain over VIC and southern NSW this morning but will also add dynamic support for severe weather to develop over central NSW and QLD this afternoon. Strong wind fields and very much above average moisture values will lead to significant thunderstorm development this afternoon and evening with flash flooding and damaging winds the main concern.

State of Play NSW

There is a low pressure system southwest of Victoria with strong wind fields aloft supporting rain and thunderstorms through VIC this morning with mainly light falls but another band of rain has formed this morning from about Hillston through Canberra and north, and it should rain here most of today. On the southern flank of that rain band in the clearer air, there may be some thunderstorms that form, unlikely to be severe but may add to the rain band size and production this afternoon. To the north of the rain band over Central and Northern NSW where the air is warmer and more unstable, severe thunderstorms likely to form with heavy rainfall leading to flash flooding, damaging winds and large hail. The storms will flatten into a mass of heavy thundery rain tonight as it moves eastwards.

Thunderstorm Analysis

There is a cluster of elevated showers and thunderstorms currently developing along a trough north of Canberra to Hillston. Another batch of showers and thunderstorms are developing over the Riverina and Lower Western, also expected to form into areas of rain later this morning spreading southeast. Moderate rainfall generally through these areas. No severe weather just yet. The severe weather risks develop from this afternoon north of these zones where the air is more unstable with a sunny start.

Thunderstorm Forecast Wednesday

A high risk day for thunderstorms with a near certainty of thunderstorms forming within 25km of a given point over the northeast of NSW and southeast QLD. Severe thunderstorms are a high chance over these regions extending south to the central districts. Flash flooding and damaging winds the main risk. Thunderstorms will continue into the night with areas of heavy rainfall. Severe thunderstorms are also possible about the southern side of the rain band between Griffith and Cooma this afternoon but considered low risk.

Flash Flood Risk Wednesday

Flash flooding a very high risk over northeast NSW and southeast QLD with very heavy rainfall rates expected with thunderstorms that form. There could be flash flooding risks over central and southern inland NSW but it is considered a low chance with thunderstorms initiating overnight ahead of the sharp trough moving through. I have not drawn it in but the risk could extend through Wagga to Canberra, but it is very low risk. Worth mentioning in these wet catchment areas.

Damaging Winds Risk Wednesday

Damaging winds are a very high chance over northern and eastern NSW and through southern QLD with strong winds aloft being drawn to the surface, especially with discrete storms that form ahead of areas of rain developing later in the day. Damaging winds also possible in the early morning over Central NSW as storms kick off.

Large Hail Risk Wednesday

A low chance of large hail with strong storms through parts o northern NSW and southern QLD. The chance of damaging hail is small but not 0.

Riverine Flood Risk Wednesday through Sunday.

A plethora of flood watches are in force for inland NSW, southern QLD and likely to be issued for parts of VIC in the coming day. Please be weather aware and prepare for flooding over the risk areas.


The satellite picks up a strong cluster of storms (MCS) moving in from the NT which brought flooding to Alice Springs now bringing heavy rainfall and damaging winds this morning to the southwest regions. This will continue to move east with additional thunderstorms forecast to form around this cluster and throughout the south and east. Severe thunderstorms are likely with heavy rainfall and damaging winds the main risk but large hail cannot be ruled out in some areas. The storm activity will flatten out into areas of rain tonight with moderate to heavy rainfall approaching the coast.

Thunderstorm Analysis

Thunderstorms are clearly evident in pockets over the southwest with an MCS and then over the eastern coast in isolated pockets. Relatively clear skies over inland areas is the fuel required to see additional thunderstorm erupt this afternoon and they will turn severe quickly.

State Of Play

Significant thunderstorm risk today and I think the chart makes it clear the areas of concern this afternoon. NOT EVERYWHERE will get smashed, but areas within this zone are at a high chance of seeing severe weather, so remain weather aware and up to date with warnings.

Thunderstorm Forecast Wednesday

Thunderstorms once again during Wednesday for southern and central areas with severe thunderstorms likely. We can already see a strong storm passing through from the NT this morning. Heavy rainfall leading to flash flooding and damaging winds the main concern but there may also be areas of riverine flooding and an isolated tornado with large hail as well, but that is considered a lower chance.

Flash Flood Risk Wednesday

A very high chance of flash flooding continues tonight and again tomorrow with excessive rainfall rates of 100mm/hr leading to extensive and dangerous flash flooding.

Damaging Winds Risk Wednesday

A very high risk of damaging winds continues for Wednesday with a deep low nearby adding dynamic support aloft for robust thunderstorms in wind fields veering with altitude. This will send the updrafts into motion and there is the risk of an isolated tornado.

Riverine Flooding This Week

Flooding a very high risk through much of the south with excessive rainfall rates over wet catchments. Moderate flooding is possible in many locations, possibly major flooding depending on placement of heaviest rainfall.

More weather updates coming throughout the day

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