NSW - AFTER WILD WEATHER OVERNIGHT IN THE SOUTH THE WEATHER SETTLES THURSDAY

A dry week likely to unfold for the inland now, with a dry airmass with high pressure looking to take over. There are signals for rainfall from this time next week, but the confidence in forecasting that is quite low still with model madness.


Rainfall to 6am

Mostly light falls but because the thunderstorms were more widespread than what was forecast, areas about the Central Tablelands and Plains saw falls over 10mm. The rainfall is out the door this morning with clearing skies.

The satellite this morning shows that drier air surging behind the front that pushed through last night. The front was certainly a spring preview for the state, with the storm season cranking early this year.

From the weekend, the northern coast may start to see showers developing. That would be thanks to a stalled boundary which is left over from the overnight front that will hang up over the border region.


Some of that moisture may creep inland a little but the overall rainfall from the feature is expected to be light with the ridge sitting quite close to the region.


The weekend and into early next week is quite dry for inland areas. A high pressure ridge will continue to dominate for much of next week I suspect however the modelling has been again reintroducing a larger scale system developing this time next week.


You guessed it, the low confidence forecast continues for the nation over the course of next week - with confidence in that system likely to increase by as early as Sunday or Monday.


Lets look at modelling


12Z GFS Surface Pressure Pattern for the coming 16 days

The pressure pattern relaxes throughout the nation today, with the vigorous flow passing east with the weather trending drier for most areas. A little rain and a thunderstorm possible about the boundary in NSW is all the rainfall expected across inland Australia today. Coastal areas may see showers today over SA, VIC and TAS but the weather largely fine elsewhere. The showers clear the southeast of the nation during the weekend but return to the east coast this weekend into next week with high pressure moving through. A weak front may develop over southeast parts of the nation during Monday sending a surge of drier air through the eastern inland, that is the major change in modelling in recent days, but again will keep watching that. Medium term, as you can see there are systems moving in from the west and north. We have got moisture over the inland and up north still. The chart this morning look more spring like.

12z GFS Rainfall for the coming 16 days

Not much to come during this next 7 days but we could see rain developing from later next week into the weekend with an upper trough passing through and moisture floating about. Overnight the modelling had widespread rainfall coming through next weekend and moderate falls for large areas of the southeast and east. This morning, not as much in the first week but the last week of August does look more active as expected with the pattern flip occurring first drying out the nation and then rain comes back to finish the month and to start September.

12z GFS Precipitable Water Anomalies next 16 days

The PW anomalies are largely unchanged from last night, though the modelling suggests more dry air coming through with the front early next week which could delay the moisture returning to southern areas of the nation. Note the weekend system that passes well south of the nation just cannot pull the moisture in over WA south, but rather leaves it there for later in the week. Medium term the moisture returns over the north and east and the pool of moisture that is left over WA eventually gets picked up by a stronger system moving out of WA.

12z Euro Surface Pressure Pattern for the coming 10 days

A quiet week nationally, probably the most quiet it has been in months with high pressure sinking further south as expected by mid month allowing the pattern to reset and warm up over the north and west. Moisture building up over the north allows the weather to turn more unsettled through the back half of August. A system later next week could see showers and storms increase over the south and east of the nation, but it keeps chopping and changing so expect this to change next run this afternoon.

12z Euro Rainfall for the coming 10 days

Dry weather for much of the inland for the coming 7 days, but I think after that time the weather is very low confidence, seeing a little more agreement that the dry air is surging north behind a front that will pass through the southeast on Monday with light showers, that was expected to be in the Tasman Sea but in recent days the models have adjusted west, seeing the moisture dam over the northern tropics. But eventually the warmer and humid air will descend southwards for the back half of August lifting rainfall chances.

12z Euro Precipitable Water Values next 10 days

Not much to work with away from the east coast and where the boundary sets up in the east this weekend, where showers will fall. Otherwise it is a dry airmass for many with a high pressure belt over the nation. We can see the moisture increasing over the nation from the end of the run and low pressure developing over southern and eastern Australia, helping showers and storms return and moisture pooling over the northwest.

Rainfall for the next 10 days

Rainfall looks very lean for the coming 5-7 days for inland areas, with a high pressure system sitting over the region, with dry air and sinking air motion promoting clear skies and mild weather. A dry airmass over the eastern inland looks to settle in for a number of days early in the new week with a cold front passing through the Tasman, sending a dry southerly flow throughout. Moisture may return as I said earlier from this time next week and I do think we will have clarity on that from Sunday or Monday.

A look at the medium term again this morning as we track a dry benign week for many inland and so we focus on what is next and when. Also talking fire risks this severe weather season for the nation.





17 views0 comments