NSW - A COLD RAIN SPREADING EAST TONIGHT AND INTO FRIDAY. COLD WEEKEND COMING UP

The rainfall spreading out of SA is knocking on the western districts this evening and a cold rainfall is forecast to spread throughout the central and northern areas of the state Friday with that possibly falling as snow above 750m in the central and northern areas if the rain is heavy enough.


Only a few showers possible over the southern interior and the ACT but the rainfall is forecast to be very patchy here.


Now that band of rain will get kicked out by the time, we get to Saturday morning as a strong cold front is passing through southeast areas of the nation, but mainly to the south of NSW. A stronger system will move over VIC on Sunday with a band of showers moving through the Riverina and Southwest Slopes Sunday morning and then the ACT and Southern and Central Tablelands during Sunday night. Once again there is the chance of a flurry or two above 800m with this feature.


Throughout the next week, the main impact of this slow pressure pattern across the nation is lower than average temperatures and cloudy periods via the jet stream for NSW with snowfalls over parts of the Alpine areas.


The weather not changing a whole lot next week with the next major weather maker on the board over the west of the country with another strong surge of moisture coming through. There is a wildcard system to watch which is the potential for cold air to cut off and move over the southeast inland later next week with widespread showers moving through next weekend and then the cold air deepening into a low offshore the east coast, but not convinced of that just yet.


Let’s take a look

FORECAST

Rainfall Next 10 Days

Rainfall is expected to be light to moderate in a band oriented from the northwest to southeast with 5-20mm expected through the northern and central inland with that forecast to then push into the slopes and then hitting the coast, but weakening by the time it hits the coastal communities. The rainfall clears out of the inland from Saturday morning. Another series of cold fronts will move through the southeast of the country, and these may clip the southern districts, with scattered showers possible with small hail about. The weather generally next week mostly fine, with a few showers about but not looking at anything widespread or heavy as the weather pattern is in a holding situation, slow moving high pressure dominating the synoptic. This will keep the wet weather over the southeast of the nation and then a new system will be featuring over the northwest of the nation spreading into WA. That system out west will be the one to watch with that likely to run across the nation in the medium term.


A broader look at the region shows the two bands of rainfall moving through the east in the short term, which I have discussed at length, the better of the northern band passing closer to the NSW/QLD border, some patchy falls into Central NSW. The frontal weather over the south set to bring widespread showers to the southern border with VIC/NSW with the best coverage coming through Sunday and Monday. Conditions dry out over northern and central NSW from early in the week and relatively dry weather forecast along the coast from Saturday through much of next week.

Frost Forecast Friday Morning

The cold air is expected to remain in place but a blanket of high and middle level cloud may mitigate the spread of frost over the western interior of NSW and throughout much of the northern parts despite the below average temperatures. Therefore, light frost can be expected along the Great Dividing Range, more likely in the south around the ACT and towards the Victorian Border.

Farmers and Graziers - This Weekend and may persist into next week.

The cold and windy weather will continue for large areas of the southeast for the coming week, but we have got a pair of strong cold fronts expected to move through leading to all the elements available, leading to dangerous conditions for stock exposed to these wintry winds and showers. The risk will contract further south into VIC and TAS next week with conditions improving over NSW, though remaining cold.

Severe Weather Watch - Damaging Winds

A strong cold front passing through the southeast will see damaging wind gusts developing ahead, with and behind the feature as it rolls through late Saturday through Sunday and into Monday. The risk will contract into Victoria during Sunday afternoon with a mass of cold showery air persisting into Monday. Strong gradient winds will reach the NSW Alpine areas and bounce off the Great Dividing Range and impact areas to the west of Sydney and Wollongong. The winds ease from Tuesday next week.

Snowline - Sunday through early next week.

Noting that the coldest air will be peaking over the southeast from Sunday to about Tuesday before we see conditions starting to improve over NSW and the atmosphere should begin to warm over VIC and TAS later next week. The weather is forecast to become drier as we go through the week across the inland, so even though there may be colder air, there may be no precipitation available to produce snow, with that staying back into VIC and TAS.

MEDIUM TERM

June 9th-16th 2022

Rainfall Anomalies

The rainfall anomalies are increasing for much of the west of the nation, once again in line with the developing trough offshore the west coast and the chance for widespread rainfall to develop over the central and northern interior areas of WA. Some of this could drift into the northern tropics and then spreading southeast into the Central Interior. Near seasonal expectations are forecast elsewhere.

Temperature Anomalies

The cooler bias across the nation is expected to continue for the first half of this month and this is thanks to the persistent southerly flow over the eastern and southeast parts of the nation, being propelled along the northern face of high pressure and in combination with cloud drifting through the jet stream. Some moderation in the cooler weather over the southwest is possible towards the end of the run.

DATA - Refer to video for more information and the model comparison and context about all the forecast products you see from me.


00Z GFS - Surface Pressure Pattern and Rainfall Distribution - Next 2 Weeks

More information in the video, so make sure you take a look at that for a broader understanding of the weather in the short and medium term. I will mention here again that the short-term forecast is carrying a high level of confidence but the medium term, very poor confidence and once we see the high-pressure system building over the Bight then we can more actively forecast with a degree of confidence the impacts on the southeast in terms of the southwest flow with showers and the wet weather developing along the west coast.

00Z GFS - Precipitable Water Values - Next 2 Weeks

I just want to point out that the short term carries a higher confidence in forecasting with a lot of moisture spreading through the eastern interior with the trough and jet stream. A series of cold fronts over the southeast states propelling a large amount of cold air northwards. The rest of the nation looking seasonal, but watching with interest the weather over in the west and north where moisture values are expected to increase throughout the short and medium term.

00Z GFS - Rainfall Accumulation - Next 10 Days

Refer to the video for more context and analysis

00Z CMC - Rainfall Accumulation - Next 10 Days

Refer to the video for more context and analysis

00Z Euro - Rainfall Accumulation - Next 8 Days

Refer to the video for more context and analysis

00Z GFS - Rainfall Accumulation - Next 2 Weeks

Refer to the video for more context and analysis

A closer look in - the modelling is of low confidence from next week away from the southeast states. This will change. More confidence builds into the forecast when we get the high-pressure system sitting over the Bight by Sunday.

More coming up from 8pm EST with a look at the models and rainfall.

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