A changeable forecast for the next week which is indicative of spring time. We have warmer than normal temperatures over a good portion of the nation today and again tomorrow.
A colder change is moving through the southern parts of SA overnight into Wednesday with that change expected to move into NSW during Wednesday afternoon. There is moisture rotating through the state from the north thanks to easterly winds over recent days. That moisture to be lifted by the front moving east Wednesday evening through Thursday.
Thunderstorms are a modest chance along the leading edge of the rainfall tomorrow afternoon, and if they form they will be able to produce damaging wind gusts, mainly west of the divide.
Damaging Winds also a risk through the coming 24hrs especially on the front and in the lee of the divide through NSW with a gusty westerly flow sending in that spring preview.
The weather clearing by Thursday morning, and really a sunny dry cooler day expected for inland areas. The coast will see some patchy rainfall but that too will be short lived.
Friday and through the weekend, the eastern inland is mostly dry and sunny, with seasonal conditions. However we will see a boundary stall over the QLD border with this combining with onshore easterly winds, lifting the rainfall chances not only for the coast but perhaps showers increasing over the southern inland.
This is the area to watch over the weekend, note the boundary riding the border. Could surprise with scattered showers.
That may continue into the weekend as the moisture remains deep with a weak trough nearby.
Next week still holding some potential to widespread rainfall moving around the eastern inland with a trough linking up with deeper moisture over the east and north.
00Z GFS Surface Pressure Pattern for the coming 16 days
The pattern for the coming few days is still locked in from this morning, no real change in the passage of frontal weather over the south, nor the change in the cooler weather spreading through the southern states. We will see the west clear out later this week with high pressure moving in. In the east, a boundary may form over the NSW/QLD border with the widespread showers moving inland, thanks to the approach of a trough. That trough will pass through WA on Saturday and race east to be over the eastern inland during early next week, providing more support for the weather to turn showery. The medium term still offers widespread rainfall as you can see the in the accumulation below for mid month.
00z GFS Rainfall for the coming 16 days
Rainfall moderate along the front in the east tomorrow, but for the remainder of the southeast states, light falls expected with a few showers to follow into Thursday and Friday. Inland areas will dry out with a high nosing in. Then the easterly winds return, and the showers clear VIC, SA and return to the east coast of NSW. That wet weather more widespread over the northern half of the NSW coast. The medium term has 2 major rainfall events for the southeast states which again will continue to chop and change from run to run.
00z GFS Precipitable Water Anomalies next 16 days
The PW values largely unchanged in the short term and you can see that verifying in real time looking at the satellite imagery. There is a lot of moisture coming into NSW from the north as well via a easterly flow over QLD which has transported a parcel of deeper moisture through the inland, that moisture expected to link up with the cold front to see a band of rain developing along the front as it passes through the east. Then we watch the moisture build next week, via easterly winds and a boundary over the QLD/NSW border, over the tropics which will surge south and southeast via the upper level winds and another plume of moisture coming into the tropics from the east via the trade winds. Where this moisture is picked up by the low pressure remains to be seen.
00z Euro Surface Pressure Pattern for the coming 10 days
The pattern for the coming 5 days in good agreement with most global models so that makes the first half of the forecast fairly easy. The second half of the short term period below is volatile and hard to pin down the impacts of the moisture and the low pressure coming through the southern parts of the nation and that will continue to be the case for the next few days.
00z Euro Rainfall for the coming 10 days
Rainfall most widespread through the coming day with the front passing through the southeast states with a burst of showers and some thunder. The moderate falls reserved for southeast NSW with the front interacting with moisture. The boundary stalls over inland NSW with showers increasing for northeastern areas of the state and along the coast north of Sydney. Then we track that upper feature over SA this time next week, it offers a decent chance of the next rainfall event. But the specifics are too hard to pin down at this time, but you can see the difference between GFS and Euro tonight.
00z Euro Precipitable Water Values next 10 days
The PW values again from run to run are all over the shop in the medium term making it very tricky to find any consistency, but the ensemble data is more settled and show moisture increasing through northern and eastern parts of the nation during the middle of the month. So while you are looking at all your weather apps saying nothing, they don't pull ALL the data that is available out there. So the forecast while it looks benign on the Euro, there are signals in the broader data sets that suggest otherwise. For now there is that first system to watch this time next week which may offer rainfall from SA through VIC and NSW after bringing showers this weekend to the west coast.
Rainfall for the next 10 days
The most widespread rainfall is expected tomorrow through Thursday with moderate falls still anticipated for the southeast inland west of the divide as the moisture links up with the front passing through. That front moves out and inland areas generally dry out from Thursday. There is no rainfall expected for the far northwest with this system. Then a dry weekend for most of the state away from the northeast inland and along the coast north of Sydney as the winds veer into the east and moisture starts to fill the eastern inland. The weather next week very tricky to pin down but I will draw in the smear of where I am expecting falls to travel. But expect this chart to change as we go through the coming days.