NOTE THE WARMER WATERS INFLUENCE ON RAINFALL OVER THE EAST.

The trough that passed through the eastern parts of NSW and in combination with the southerly change, triggered heavy showers and storms for coastal areas that have caused flash flooding, a surprise against the guidance from all modelling.


Now that we have seen that occur, forecasts factoring in the warmer waters offshore the east coast of NSW and QLD will mean that showers and thunderstorms will likely be more efficient rainfall producers than what is forecast for some and lead to surprise flash flooding.


Rainfall for the previous 24 hours - some totals exceeded 90mm in areas around Newcastle and near Taree.

My forecast rainfall for the coming 10 days valid Thursday based off best model guidance. This expresses that the thundery mix plus the higher the average SSTs can bring up rainfall totals that modelling and any forecast issued won’t capture. So be aware as we move into the wet period on the east coast that a lot of water can come down in quick time!

More weather information on the week ahead of the east and southeast coming up Sunday.


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