It may be quiet at the moment through large areas of the inland, central and eastern areas, but there will be hints that the Indian Ocean Dipole Negative Phase is continuing to strengthen leading to higher moisture values sweeping the country in the short and medium term.
But whether we see rainfall east of WA remains a big question with these cloud bands.
We have one large cloud band that is likely to develop later on this week over the west coast of WA and sweep into the interior this weekend ahead of a strong cold front. That does look to bring rainfall to southern areas of WA and then into southern SA and the southeast inland, but the cloud band that will accompany the front looks to be decoupled from the lifting mechanism to produce widespread rainfall.... for now!
But it is a sure sign that the climate drivers and indicators suggesting a wetter Winter as we go through the nation and into Spring 2022 is likely to unfold, refer to the CLIMATE OUTLOOK - AUGUST TO OCTOBER 2022 in about an hour!
Northwest Cloud Band Potential Friday-Sunday
You will find that the better coverage of rainfall with the cloud band will be over in WA where the moisture and instability are in relationship with one another. This will lead to higher rainfall coverage from the Gascoyne through to the Southern Interior of WA and patchier rainfall entering western SA. But with ridging likely holding firm through the outlook period over central and eastern parts of the nation, there is likely to be thicker high cloud from this event for the southeast and east rather than rainfall. The rainfall with the cold front over the SWLD will be heavier but does not combine with the moisture moving out of the Indian Ocean.
12z Euro - Simulated Cloud Coverage - Next 7 days
Noting the cloud coverage will spread throughout the nation but as mentioned above, the rainfall producing cloud cover will be located back in WA.
WATCHING THE ENGINE ROOM
This is the area to watch, and it may be boiling away with little consequence for us right now, this will be important to the above average rainfall forecasts that have been touted by all agencies including this one, for the remainder of Winter and Spring. So, stay close to the forecasts through the week!
More to come on this and the impacts for your state in the afternoon updates.