NORTHERN TROPICS - THE WEATHER BEGINNING TO SETTLE DOWN THIS WEEK BUT WATCHING THE NEXT WAVE!

A drier weekend and much of this week has been welcomed by the tropical nuts with the weather drying out and storms hard to find over recent days. Really more of that is to come with a large high over the Bight and an upper high building over the subtropics through southern NT and into western QLD holding the conditions in a stalemate.


So it will be ground hog day for a while.


But as we go into next week, there is a chance of seeing more widespread showers and thunderstorms drifting through northern areas as we see a wave pass in from the Coral Sea, through the Arafura Sea and into the Indian Ocean.


At this time, the wind bearing is expected to be easterly, however, if the wind bearing shifts into the northeast with the upper high breaking down, this may send in higher rainfall totals to Cape York and the Top End mid month so that will be worth watching. Could be the last hurrah of the wet season proper for this 2021/22.


Lets take a look

FORECAST

Rainfall Next 10 Days

Rainfall is becoming more lean as we go through the outlook period which is very normal for this time of year. That will be the case as we move through the coming 6 weeks. However, there is some chance that one final burst of monsoonal weather over northern parts of the Arafura and Coral Seas may begin to move closer to the FNQ coast and into the Top End with moderate to heavy falls possible from next week. Until then lighter falls are expected away from the FNQ Coast. Onshore trade winds with a trough nearby will see showers increasing through this period with daily moderate to heavy falls. It is becoming drier through the sub tropics, especially west of the Great Dividing Range.

Rainfall Next 10 Days

Rainfall over the Top End and Kimberly light on if anything through much of this week but rainfall will return to the northern parts of the Top End during the weekend if not next week with an unstable easterly flow developing near a wave passing to the north of the NT.

Central Australia - conditions will be dry for the next 10 days with a large scale upper high in full force.

MEDIUM TERM FORECAST - April 11th-18th 2022

Moisture Spread

Great odds of seeing the last of the tropical waves passing through the tropics in the medium term with some heightened risk of showers and thunderstorms. There may be moisture remaining in place for eastern areas of the nation in weak onshore winds for NSW but a stronger flow for QLD where the trade winds could bring in some heavier falls. Moisture may also begin to be drawn into the westerly wind belt leading to more rain and cloud cover over much of southwest and southern Australia.

Rainfall Anomalies

Rainfall anomalies for this period are remaining fairly neutral for most areas away from the northern tropics where there is evidence of that lingering wet season influence via the tropical wave. The bias for drier weather remains over inland areas however, has been softened to reflect the uncertainty surrounding the development of moisture out of the northwest and north of the nation feeding into weather systems moving through the Southern Ocean. Timing is everything.

Temperature Anomalies

No change to the temperature anomalies through the nation for the second week of April. Above average temperatures will continue for large sections of interior Australia with a broad high pressure ridge in place and slowly moving through and extending through the southeast of Tasman Sea leading to a warm northwest to northerly flow establishing over the southern parts of the country. Pockets of the nation, being the southwest, the far east and northeast of QLD could see below average temperatures, but the nation as a whole seasonal to above seasonal temperatures.

DATA - Refer to the video for further information and it is critical to keep check of the data sets to understand where the next major weather events are emerging from outside of this period. It may be quiet now but I am all about preparation and ensuring that information is shared with you as soon as it is available.


00Z GFS - Surface Pressure Pattern and Rainfall Distribution - Next 2 Weeks

More details can be found in the video at the top of the page.

00Z GFS - Precipitable Water Anomalies - Next 2 Weeks

There is some seriously dry air being forecast across the middle and upper portions of the nation that will not only suppress rainfall chances moving forward beyond the next severe weather potential for the east, but could also lead to a prolonged period of below average rainfall for some locations into the latter part of the month if this was to verify. So will be watching keenly to see how that plays out. You can see the tropics are very much quiet (not dead) and the Indian Ocean only having influence in the short term on the back of the week long storm event.

00Z GFS - Rainfall Accumulation - Next 10 Days

Refer to the video for more context and analysis

00Z CMC - Rainfall Accumulation - Next 10 Days

Refer to the video for more context and analysis

00Z GFS - Rainfall Accumulation - Next 2 Weeks

Refer to the video for more context and analysis

A closer look in - tropical weather is interesting, will be watching to see whether that wave can pass in from the Coral Sea into the Cape York region. Some falls could be heavier. Rainfall over the NT is fairly typical for this time of year.

Same can be said for the Kimberly, usually the first region to dry out around the tropics in the absence of late season cyclone activity.

I will have the Climate Outlook Update tomorrow and a look at the weather once again from 8am EST. Have a great evening.


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