Where does it go? When does it start? Does it actually occur or is this just a whole lot of model madness?
These are the questions that will remain in the air until early next week and we are sitting in a period of uncertainty as we wait and see the impacts of the blocking pattern (brief) over the Tasman Sea on the strong cold front approaching from WA into the Southeast this week coming.
That sequence will then have onward impacts for the system that tries to develop over the nation later next week which spawns that large rainfall potential over northern and eastern areas of the nation.
So, it is complex, and I wish I could pick it apart further to tell you exactly what is going to happen, but we have to sit and wait and see what this first system does through the weekend and into next week and then we get a better handle on the system later next week into the weekend
HERE ARE THE BROADER DATA SETS AND RAINFALL NATIONALLY
CFS Rainfall - Next 2 Weeks
Euro Rainfall - Next 2 Weeks
GFS Rainfall - Next 2 Weeks
CMC Rainfall - Next 2 Weeks
You can see the broader data sets are better aligned in the rainfall distribution but understand that the data sets that populate all your wonderful apps, yr.no etc, do not use this data that you are reviewing each morning trying to make sense of it, so keep it here for your interpretation and forecast packages.