NORTHERN AND EASTERN AUSTRALIA - WATCHING THE RAINFALL POTENTIAL OVER THE NORTH AND NORTHEAST

Just to continue the conversation for those over northern and northeast areas of the nation, yes there are still signals on the medium-term models for rainfall and storms to emerge throughout the last week of June into early July.


But as I keep saying, the confidence in the modelling is low, it is over 10 days out and the pattern ahead of this even becoming an event is complex and a lot of things have to go right for this to become a large-scale Winter rain event for the region.


So, this is where we are today.


EURO MODEL REPEATS THE GFS FROM YESTERDAY

You can see the uncanny resemblance to the GFS from yesterday with a deep upper trough drawing in moisture from the north and east.

EURO RAINFALL - A LOT TO FALL IN THE MEDIUM-TERM UP NORTH.

The rainfall spread is very similar to the GFS from yesterday which indicates there is something lurking out there that needs to be paid attention too. This is going to be a focus over the coming week. If you are living through the eastern Top End, through western and central QLD and into northern inland NSW, pay attention to the forecasts as we wrap the end of the month.

YESTERDAY'S GFS FOR REFERENCE AND CONTRAST

Yesterday the GFS had the rain event like the Euro does today, impacting large areas of northern Australia but has dropped the system further to the south.

This is where the GFS has the upper feature today. This will bring rainfall through eastern QLD and the chance of thunderstorms, but the northern tropics would be dry under such a solution.

GFS YESTERDAY

Deep moisture over the Coral and Arafura Seas should be brought in via a broad north and northeast flow and feed the upper low if it is sitting in that position leading to widespread rainfall and thunderstorms, with heavy falls possible leading to some areas recording 3-4 months of rainfall in a sitting for this time of year, possibly more.

EURO MODEL TODAY

Overlaying the GFS commentary from yesterday, you can see the uncanny resemblenace of the models over the past day, playing hokey pokey with the weather event, but consistency is just not there.

PRECIPITABLE WATER ANOMALIES

GFS YESTERDAY

To give you a sense of how anomalous the values and data coming through some of the modelling, the moisture compared to the average is suggesting that what we are seeing is about 300-400% above normal. This would equate to a 1/40 year event IF IT WERE TO VERIFY.

Uncanny when you look at the Euro today vs the GFS yesterday.

And you can see the result with rainfall coming up over the nation's north and east, with much of that rainfall over northern Australia to fall beyond 10 days from now, so it is a ways off!

THE EURO MODEL TODAY


More to come on this in the state-based forecasts tonight, as I said over the past few days, the modelling with throw the system all over the place but we are looking at a complex and slow-moving anomalous area of low pressure across northern and northeast Australia, it will come down to a measure of how many ingredients could come together.