NORTHEAST RAINFALL POTENTIAL - LATER IN THE WEEKEND INTO NEXT WEEK.

The elements are still there for a developing rain event over the northeast inland of the nation spreading southwards into the eastern and possibly southeast inland, but the forecast confidence remains low.


I will continue to advise daily on this matter morning and night and any further information throughout the day as posted here now.


The issue around consistency in the forecast is the placement of the colder upper level temperatures surging behind a front moving across the southeast over the weekend (models had the cold air surging northwards with the system Thursday during last week's data but now have pushed it back).


So timing is an issue, the complexity surrounding the systems over in the southeast and eastern inland of the country in the coming days will have onward impacts to the event developing later through the weekend and into next week.


Patience is required but stay close to the forecasts because all the ingredients are there for severe weather to develop.


GFS 18Z UPPER AIR PATTERN - NEXT THURSDAY

Note the troughing over the northeast is digging down into QLD more so than some of the other modelling, but at one point or another, other models have had this solution, but it is a complex set up and one piece of the setup being 200km in a different direction or 10 knots slowing in motion changes everything from run to run, and it will not be until we see the modelling react to systems in real time that the confidence improves. So that is why you are getting wild readings on all your famous apps, rain one moment, gone the next...that will continue.

GFS 12Z RAINFALL - NEXT 2 WEEKS

Rainfall is more extensive over the east and southeast inland of QLD with moisture streaming south into a deepening trough with the high pressure ridge stronger further over in WA, and this is opening the door to that rainfall event becoming more acute for much of QLD and into NSW and possibly VIC. The placement of the trough and the moisture and the high pressure to the south all key to rainfall occurring over land areas.

EURO 12Z UPPER AIR PATTERN - NEXT TUESDAY

The ridging over the southern parts of the nation is stronger and this bumps the trough and moisture further north and east of QLD and NSW leading to rainfall falling out to sea moreso than over land. The position of the trough and high pressure system is key to opening the door to more rainfall potential with moisture being able to surge southwards rather than eastwards.

EURO 12Z RAINFALL - NEXT 2 WEEKS

Rainfall is a little further to the east and heaviest along the coastal fringe and extending down into the northeast NSW. But see the impact of the high pressure system over the southeast inland where other models keep the high pressure back to the west.

CMC 12Z UPPER AIR PATTERN - NEXT THURSDAY

Troughing a little more aggressive along the east coast and over the north of QLD and that wraps the moisture into the east of the state and with the high sitting further back to the west with that allowing the door to be opened to moisture streaming southwards into the eastern and southeast inland.

CMC 12Z RAINFALL - NEXT 2 WEEKS

Noting that the high takes a step back to let the trough and upper system dig down over QLD and into northern NSW with higher rainfall totals with the system from mid next week through to the end of next week. Rainfall could be very heavy along the coast.

I will have more to say on this in the evening state based updates, but keep watching closely!