NEXT STRONG COLD FRONT MID WEEK MAY BRING SOME DAMAGING WINDS AND HEAVY RAINFALL FOR SWLD OF WA.

The east gets all the attention at times, but the frontal weather looks to be quite productive out west with the next system on the board packing a punch as we move through Wednesday into Thursday.


A strong cold front tapping into deeper moisture offshore, could see a large cloud band move into the state, leading to areas of widespread rainfall, possibly moderate to heavy at times along the coastal fringe.


Simulated Cloud Coverage Wednesday

A decent slab of moisture passing through the jet stream will be likely picked up by a cold front passing through the Indian Ocean leading to widespread rainfall developing over the state with moderate to heavy falls developing along the axis of the front as it moves through. It will likely reach the Goldfields overnight into Thursday.

Simulated Cloud Coverage Wednesday into Thursday

Areas of rain with moderate falls continuing Wednesday night into Thursday with a colder westerly wind regime moving into the SWLD with showers continuing as the front rolls through to the east.

Simulated Cloud Coverage Thursday into Friday

The cloud band continues to move through the state with a clear connection back to the warmer waters of the Indian Ocean but the support for rainfall under this cloud band is not there so it will just be high and middle level cloud for the remainder of WA. The cold front itself hits the block over in the east and showers will likely decrease around the Eucla, back to fine for the SWLD.

Simulated Cloud Coverage Saturday

Next cold front on the board moves through the SWLD with the higher impacts along the coastal fringe of southern and western areas of the SWLD. Some hail and thunder and colder weather developing under the cold and gusty westerly wind regime. The showery weather migrating east along the coast through the day.

Rainfall Comparison

You can see from the model comparison side by side, that the rainfall is widespread but heaviest with the Euro on the far right and the CMC in the middle, where the GFS has a stronger blocking pattern over the east, this weakening the system a lot more efficiently than the other two models.

Rainfall Forecast Next 4 Days

Rainfall is forecast to become widespread in the days ahead but as with all things rainfall at this time of year, the wettest weather should be south of Perth in that rain belt corner. The rainfall still useful for most areas but should peter out the further east you go as you can see from the guidance above. Once again, the elevated SSTs sitting offshore will support higher rainfall totals than what is being advertised in coastal areas between Perth and Bremer Bay so watch the trends closely.

Severe Weather Watch - Damaging Winds

A low to moderate risk at this time for damaging winds to develop along the cold front as it passes through during mid-week. This is a fairly standard weather event for the SWLD.

More coming up in the state based forecasts from 5pm EST.




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