NATIONAL WEATHER WRAP WITH A LOOK AT THE RAINFALL EVENT NEXT WEEK.

HEADLINES


  • The weather is expected to dry out over the southeast today as the low moves away, however a new trough is on the approach.

  • Showers and storms to develop over the northern and central parts of the QLD coast and the adjacent inland areas near a developing trough.

  • The weather turning hot next week across the south and east with a northwest flow increasing.

  • A cold blast still expected over SWLD of WA mid to late next week (timing tricky) with rainfall sweeping the state.

  • A rain event knocking on the door of SA through the southeast and east from this time next week.

Lets dive in and take a look at the next 2 days


One low pressure system moving east of the nation is seeing conditions clear after falls of 70-80mm in eastern Victoria and 10-40mm throughout southeast NSW. The next low pressure system is coming through south of SA and that is expected to move east over the southeast on Sunday with a few showers and storms. Light falls for the most part but some areas of northeast VIC and southeast NSW (west of the divide) are expected to record 5-15mm with this feature. Otherwise the nation is quiet, but moisture and onshore winds should give rise to showers up along the FNQ coast with a few storms near a trough in the coming days.

Thunderstorm Forecast Saturday

Thunderstorms are possible across the northeast of QLD this afternoon, with a weak trough in the region lifting the moisture into isolated showers and thunderstorms this afternoon. Thunderstorms are also possible in the southeast this afternoon with a trough pushing over the region. A marginal risk of some gusty winds reaching damaging thresholds but the overall risk is low.

Thunderstorm Forecast Sunday

The low pressure trough moves east through the southeast with thunderstorms becoming gusty over the ranges of eastern VIC and southeast NSW. Moderate bursts of rainfall and small hail also possible in the region. Storms unlikely to turn severe. Thunderstorms turning more scattered about the northeast of QLD with a few moderate to heavy falls possible with small hail in the southern part of the drawn area.

The temperatures are expected to increase dramatically in the coming week with the below average week of temperatures we have just experienced over much of the nation a thing of the past and many areas heading back well above the average, some locations near record values for September. This is all ahead of a developing long wave. All aboard the spring roller coaster with temperatures likely to turn well below average as frontal weather, rainfall and thick cloud cover returns for mid month! So be aware that winter is not over yet!

12Z GFS - Surface Pressure Pattern - Next 2 weeks.

One low pressure system is out the door and the next one coming through the southeast this weekend with light rainfall and gusty winds. A few thunderstorms could bring some heavier totals. Then a trough over north QLD takes the focus of wet weather, with onshore winds feeding the trough causing showers and storms to become more widespread Sunday through early next week. Warming up dramatically as you can see above, that is ahead of a strong cold front that will run through the moisture coming over QLD and into central Australia, this being lifted into an area of rain spreading through SA and into the east later next week into the weekend. Behind the front, colder than normal weather to start Spring over WA, that colder air will eventually pass over the east during next weekend, kicking out the heat! There are more rainfall events beyond this with moisture rolling around the nation but as stated yesterday, these will come and go like ships in the night, look at the longer term for signals.

12Z GFS - Precipitable Water Anomalies - Next 2 weeks.

No real change in the values over the coming days, though we are seeing a little uptick in the moisture content early next week over the southeast with a weaker front passing to the southwest of VIC. It may trigger a few thundery showers through that part of the world. Otherwise the pattern is unchanged from last night, watching the timing of the front, the depth of moisture spreading west through QLD into Central Australia and to see if it is all in phase to produce that widespread rainfall models are suggesting. This sequence will only become clearer when the cold front is tracked in real time over the nation by the upper air balloon network. The medium term showing the tropics getting soupy and this will breed more rainfall opportunities for inland areas over central and eastern Australia.

12Z GFS -Rainfall - Next 2 weeks.

Largely unchanged from last night but the model does keep shifting the rainfall distribution around through next week, in the shorter term, some nice totals possible for the tropics of QLD as well as the subtropics and adjacent inland. Then the focus is on the rainfall spreading through WA mid next week into SA and then the east. Totals will bounce around. In the medium term there are more rainfall events being forecast for the north and east of the nation with perhaps now a thundery outbreak over QLD and NSW on this latest run. Rather than looking at it for rainfall it is more useful to look at that signal as the seasonal shift continues to evolve in the coming fortnight.

The other global models show the impact of timing, with the moisture and the lifting mechanism (being the front) all over the board, which is normal when the system has not even developed yet. But the good news, most all models has rainfall spreading through the south and east of the nation - so Ag areas should be paying attention to this system from SA through the southeast inland.

12Z CMC - Rainfall - Next 10 days

12Z KMA - Rainfall - Next 12 days

12Z ACCESS - Rainfall - Next 10 days

That means that the rainfall forecasts again will remain low confidence but here is the updated chart for this morning for the coming 10 days.

I will have another quick update this evening



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