Good morning everyone. Well another fairly benign day of weather heading our way and indeed for the next few days as high pressure settles on it. Lets take a look at the data this morning.

Satellite Imagery

Fairly settled satellite this morning with pockets of low cloud over the south and east giving way to a shower or two. There is inland fog about inland areas of NSW and VIC as well that should lift. Otherwise you can spot the cold fronts further south of where they have been. One of them has found a weakness in the ridge over the south and will pass through southeast Australia later today into Monday. Otherwise the rest of the nation dry away from the QLD coast.

Things are starting to reset at the moment under the pattern flip, I am interested in the pooling of moisture offshore the northwest of WA with some of that drawn into the upper level northwesterly and heading southeast today, there could be some patchy rainfall about the Pilbara during today or Monday.

Temperatures to start the day are quite cold through the southeast and east, and milder along the east coast thanks to onshore winds. Warmer through the NT and QLD where humidity values are starting creep up as the winds veer more east northeast. Milder over the southern coastal areas with a tad more cloud as well. There has been recorded severe frost over parts of the southeast inland of NSW and the ACT this morning.

Rainfall for the next 10 days

Rainfall again, seems to be the old song and dance this week, but there are projections of more into the medium term.

00Z GFS Rainfall for the next 16 days.

GFS is fairly quiet as per the other global models right through until later this week when the first weather systems start to encroach on WA then move through southern SA and into VIC. The weather is expected to turn showery next weekend over the southern states, some of that drifting inland. The central and eastern inland mostly dry until this time next week. Then it appears below that the moisture that builds up through northern parts of the nation will get drawn south with a major trough and front sweeping the south and east. If this were to verify, some areas of western QLD would see their winter rainfall in one sitting. But this will change from run to run.

00Z Euro Rainfall for the next 10 days.

The Euro Rainfall which goes out 10 days shows you how much rainfall falls outside of this period according to GFS to round out the month. A dry week for most areas of the inland with seasonal to above seasonal temperatures. The rainfall returning to the southern states by later this week, starting in WA mid week and hitting SA by Friday and the southeast next weekend. The east coast seeing showers most days this week, with the most frequent and moderate falls over FNQ. There may even be a thundery shower or two about the far north of the Top End with humidity values rising.

00Z CMC Rainfall for the next 10 days.

The CMC like all global modelling keeps this week settled, a chance to dry out for many and temperatures above average over the inland. The rainfall does start to return as per the other guidance, over WA from mid this week, heading over coastal areas of SA and into VIC Friday and through the weekend, with heavier rainfall of 100-200mm for western TAS. The showers creeping into southern NSW as well. The east coast of QLD seeing plenty of showers the further north you are. The CMC does have rainfall coming into the picture as per the GFS after this period concludes, so again the theme of wetter as we go through August is looking fair at this time.

00Z Surface Pressure Pattern for the next 16 days.

The surface pressure pattern is largely unchanged from overnight you can see the high pressure dominating proceedings this week, sending the onshore winds and showers along the QLD coast. The same high pressure belt will be responsible for sending the winds into the northeast to east and increasing humidity values over the northern tropics. It will bring milder days into the western coast of WA and keep the fronts mainly to the south of the nation though a sneaky front has found a weakness in the ridge and likely pass through the southeast later today. In the medium term, there is all sorts of dynamic weather which again comes and goes from the charts. Something to keep an eye on, especially with the moisture pooling into the north and northeast of the nation during this week and over the northwest later this week as well.

00Z Precipitable Water Anomalies for the next 16 days.

The anomalies paint the picture of how much moisture there is to work with in the medium term and again, when low pressure becomes a feature on the charts, this would see large scale rainfall events sweep the nation. This one being projected this morning is what you would expect at this time of year under current climatic guides, but again we will know more on that throughout the week. Will it be there in this evening's update? If it is, then that would be throw more weight behind this solution.

I will have your state by state climate outlook for September coming out after lunch time. Have a great Sunday.

55 views0 comments