NATIONAL WEATHER WRAP - SATURDAY MORNING

A quick look at what the weather is doing this Saturday morning across the nation and the week ahead with the latest data sets.


SYNOPSIS


The weather mild to warm over the south grading to very warm to hot over northern SA, northwest and northern NSW into QLD with a westerly gradient flow dragging in the desert air from WA and the NT.


A sliver of moisture is currently hanging back over parts of SA as mentioned, left behind by the weakening cold front overnight, it is now sitting in place waiting for the next wave to absorb it, which is due to take place on Sunday.


Satellite shows that moisture plume just meandering through the jet stream over SA and NSW this morning, it is producing little rainfall. The front with cold air expected to bring the rainfall potential from later Sunday through Monday over the southeast is currently appearing well south of the nation.

That moisture will be drawn south and southeast and run into the cold dry air and we are likely to see extensive rainfall break out over VIC and NSW, with scattered falls for eastern SA and southern QLD.


A low pressure system is still expected to develop on the front as it passes through the southeast during Monday and deepen just offshore during Tuesday leading to more rain and a low end risk of severe weather at this time.


Out west the weather is largely dry through this period, with a high expected to take control of the weather over the west and north. Dry colder air filtering in from behind the system passing over the southeast will move through much of central and western Australia bringing down the heat values for a while but no rainfall expected.


The next chance of rainfall for the SWLD is with a cold front that is due to arrive mid week. That front will be likely shunted to the southwest of SA with a blocking pattern in the Tasman with that low slow to move away.


There are more rainfall chances to the end the month and to kick off September for the south and east.


ITS ALL ABOUT THE RAINFALL OUTPUT.


Rainfall for the next 10 days

I am blending all the data as you can see below for the coming 10 days. The most widespread and heavy rainfall is expected over the southeast of the nation with the major cold front passing over during Sunday through Tuesday. A low is expected to form along that front and where this low forms will determine where the rainfall will be heaviest. At this stage there is a HIGH chance of heavy rainfall developing over the southeast of NSW and eastern VIC, but this could still shift. Otherwise the tropics are unsettled with more humidity passing through during the coming few days ahead of the dry surge. Showers redeveloping for SWLD of WA mid next week with another front which will slide southeast through state, blocked by the low pressure system over the Tasman Sea, which looks to hold up the works.

Lets take a look at modelling


ACCESS Rainfall 6 Days

The Access has more rainfall along the front as it develops a low over the southeast inland of NSW before sweeping it offshore. The trough on its eastern and northern flank sends a reasonable rain band over the eastern inland of NSW and creeps that into southern QLD during Monday into Tuesday. The remainder of the nation nice and quiet.

CMC Rainfall for the next 6 days

Also showing heavy falls for a good chunk of the eastern inland, extends the heavy rainfall back along the Murray and heavy falls in the southeast of NSW and Gippsland extending up the NSW South Coast as the low slowly moves offshore with backwash southerly and rain periods. The rainfall creeps into southern QLD but not as heavy as ACCESS. Rest of the nation nice and quiet through mid next week.

KMA Rainfall for the next 6 days

Rainfall not as heavy as some modelling suggest but a nice soaker for eastern parts of NSW mainly west of the divide. Some heavy falls in the wrap around southerly winds for coastal southeast NSW and Gippsland. The rest of the nation nice and quiet through mid next week on current guide.

ICON Rainfall for the next 5 days

Has heavy widespread rainfall for the eastern inland of NSW with some severe weather risks into the southeast coast of NSW with the low being forecasts to slowly move off. The rainfall extends into southeastern inland parts of QLD but is not as widespread further west through NSW and VIC in the latest run.

UKMet Rainfall for the next 6 days

Similar to the other models which is slowing down the low pressure system and keeping it close enough to cause severe weather for parts of the southeast NSW coast. Rainfall extends back inland a fair way with the front passing through and lifting that moisture. Not as much rainfall making it into QLD nor as far west through VIC and NSW as other models suggest.

I will have another update this afternoon with the later data sets and do expect changes to this outlook for NSW and VIC as modelling gets a better handle on where the low pressure system winds up.





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