NATIONAL WEATHER WRAP - SATURDAY EVENING.

Headlines


  • Warm and windy over the east with a good supply of sunshine.

  • Colder change now approaching the southeast states bringing a burst of wintry showers, mainly light falls.

  • Next week the showers move to the NSW coast with moderate falls, could also be a few surprise falls over the southern ranges and ACT.

  • Mid week, the next major front is on the way to the SWLD, this being the focus of further rainfall potential for SA through the southeast states during the course of later next week into next weekend.

  • The tropics, getting more humid and more unsettled this week.

Farmers in SA are needing a drink and again the models are playing with heartstrings as from one run to another, rain is forecast and then it is not. For the eastern areas, there are signals for some better rainfall odds later next week as the front comes through, dragging moisture out of the northwest into the eastern inland.


Where that happens, determines how much rainfall SA is likely to receive.


Rainfall for the next 10 days

Not much change from last night with a trough deepening over the east bring onshore winds and showers to the east coast. The next major rainfall event is expected from WA during Wednesday and this likely to link in with moisture to bring scattered showers and storms for SA and then more widespread rainfall, AT THIS STAGE, for the eastern states.

Rainfall closer view for SA

I wish I could paint some more consistent rainfall for areas of Ag SA but at this time the guidance is favouring eastern areas, but this will chop and change so keep watch on the forecasts, not just the deterministic data which is quite useless (especially apps!!!)

Rainfall closer view for NSW

Rainfall numbers will bounce around but a good chance in the short term of rainfall over the east coast with onshore winds and that upper trough. The inland rainfall chances pick up later next week into the weekend and the rainfall totals again will move around as we get better clarity but if you are west of the divide, this will be the next opportunity for rainfall.

DATA

00Z GFS - Surface Pressure Pattern next 2 weeks

Colder southwest change is expected to sweep through the southeast this evening and north during Sunday, bringing a cold burst of showers with it, the weather vastly different to today over much of the east and southeast. Ahead of the change tomorrow in central and northern NSW it will be warm and windy. But conditions start to drop off Monday with showers developing for the east coast. The weather remains fine for much of the inland of the nation for the coming 5 days before we see a change roll through the west, that will help to bring moisture down from the northern tropics and this being lifted by the eastward moving front. Again, where this connection occurs will determine how much rainfall ends up falling through SA, but it is favouring more NSW and VIC at this time, back through the NT and into northwest WA. Further follow up systems are possible in a broadcast westerly wind for the southeast but this will likely change in the medium term with the ensemble data wetter for inland areas at this time.

00Z GFS - Precipitable Water Anomalies - next 2 weeks

Clearly can see that dry surge moving north through the nation with the southerly change during the coming 24hrs, also flushing out the warm spring time weather. The moisture over the north of the nation will be drawn into SA and WA, with a northeast wind. Scattered cloud cover in the mid and upper levels may give way to showers over western SA. Then the larger moisture surge comes in with that system moving into WA, that bring deeper moisture and again can see another large rain band developing along that system as it rolls through the southern states. It is likely on this current guide to support the eastern states, but watch this space as the modelling has been quite volatile about placement, timing and scale of this moisture. You can see the battle between dry and build up over the north continues into the medium term, but there is more moisture to work with.

00Z GFS - Precipitation - next 2 weeks

The rainfall over the southeast is already underway and likely to increase tomorrow before easing into Monday. The rainfall chances then increase for the eastern third of NSW during Monday into Tuesday with a northward moving upper trough. Light falls for now, but there may be a few moderate falls about the coast. Then we will see moisture deepen over the north with scattered showers and storms returning, this moisture running down the western border of the NT and south into SA with a northeast flow. The moisture then likely to be picked up by the fast moving front, which brings large areas of rainfall to SWLD of WA and then into the east. Once again, some chance parts of SA could miss out, but that is on the current guide! This may change.

I will have state based forecasts with a look at the next 6 weeks tomorrow and a detailed look at the week ahead with some interesting systems on the board.

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