A brilliant day of sunshine for most areas today under high pressure with that high expected to move eastwards over the coming day or so. There is a little weakness in that belt of high pressure which will allow for a cold front to pass through the southeast from later tomorrow into Monday.
For those in the southeast we have got another decent chance of widespread frost under the high pressure belt with pockets of severe frost possible once again up and down the divide.
Another cold night on the way with frost possible over a wide area, severe frost a moderate to high chance over the ranges to the southeast and GDR.
You can track the frontal weather passing through to the south of the nation, that is being held there by a strong ridge over the nation. Note that boundary that is still left over from the front that brought the gusty change mid week to NSW, it is now meandering through southern QLD. Otherwise the weather is largely fine.
And for those wanting to see the science in action, spot the boundary through QLD. Sadly the air is too stable for rainfall at this time, but the humidity is being lifted into areas of cumulus this afternoon. The shift in the season is already upon us.
Back to the weather for the coming week now.
00Z GFS Surface Pressure Pattern for the coming 16 days
The weather is largely calm and settled for the inland for the coming week. The next front of interest sets up over the west of the nation during the middle of this week coming, that will bring showers back to the SWLD with a milder westerly change. Then a stronger front is expected to rise out of the southern ocean during the latter part of the week, bringing the better chance of rainfall for the southern and eastern parts of the nation. That system again looks dynamic, pulls on a good supply of moisture over the inland areas of Australia and we will likely see a clash of airmasses allowing for widespread rainfall for large parts of the inland. As I was saying throughout the week, this system will continue to evolve over the course of this weekend and early next week and will likely have a better guide on that next week. For now the wettest part of the nation will likely be the east coast of QLD of FNQ in particular as well as western TAS.
00z GFS Rainfall for the coming 16 days
Rainfall very lean this week with the weather turning drier for much of the inland, we can see that today. Coastal areas over the southeast are expected to see showers from later tomorrow through Monday into Tuesday with a weak front and onshore winds. The showers will increase of FNQ in trade winds. The west will see an increase in shower activity from Wednesday with that front weakening further on to the east. A stronger front will approach the south of the nation from later next week into the weekend with widespread rainfall possible. Humidity increasing over the north may give way to widespread showers over the tropics for a period towards the last week of August.
00z GFS Precipitable Water Anomalies next 16 days.
You can see rainfall is fairly lean for a good part of this outlook as mentioned above. The rainfall chances increase with the moisture pooling later this week into next weekend and that moisture being picked up and lifted into widespread areas of rainfall. There are two systems to watch in the coming fortnight and some of that could produce some of the more widespread rainfall we have seen in quite some time for inland areas of the NT, SA, NSW and QLD. Will have to watch trends still, however the modelling is starting to improve in the medium term, likely to have a better handle on that weather event coming up this week.
00z Euro Surface Pressure Pattern for the coming 10 days
The Euro very similar this week with a settled pattern to come. The southern states will still see the showers early in the week, showers about the east coast in onshore winds, heaviest over FNQ and then we track the high pressure system into the eastern inland so becoming drier and warmer as we go through the week. So I do think we will see a lot of growth starting to occur in the warmer sunshine over southern and eastern Australia. Mid to late week we have one frontal system expected to pass through. Then a stronger system at the end of the period but again, the Euro has not been performing as well as other models in recent times.
00z Euro Rainfall for the coming 10 days
Rainfall for the next 10 days limited to the southeast coastal areas and east coast north of Hervey Bay as we track onshore winds throughout the region. The weather then tending to clear out over the southeast from Tuesday. A weak front to approach from later this coming week into the weekend likely to bring the next burst of rainfall for the west coast of Australia with a stronger system to follow. The west coast of TAS and the FNQ coast will look to be the wettest areas of the nation over the coming week with the forecast confidence dropping away next weekend.
00z Euro Precipitable Water Values next 10 days
The Euro is much drier in the longer term compared to the GFS and this battle will continue to play out. As a consequence, the rainfall is lighter and restricted to coastal areas. But I do think that it is running a little too dry at this time.
Rainfall for the next 10 days
Therefore rainfall largely unchanged from this morning regarding the week ahead, the weekend very tricky to pin down. GFS wants to bring the system in earlier, where EC wants to bring that larger scale system later on after next weekend. But overall there is rainfall in the next fortnight for many areas, to round out the month.
I will have more tomorrow on the state by state look for September 2021 and a full update on the weather for the week ahead too tomorrow afternoon. Hopefully better signals for the rainfall event coming up in about a week.