Widespread rainfall moving through WA into SA overnight into the eastern states on Wednesday with moderate falls.
Widespread showers along the coastal areas of SA and eastern WA with a low pressure system moving eastwards.
Fine weather developing over the west coast with new high pressure.
And what is this? Chance of a thunderstorm or two over the Top End in dry season!!?
An active spread of weather across the country at the moment with widespread rainfall spreading from SA through the NT and into the eastern states on Wednesday. The rain band has begun to break down, encountering some drier air and the system is also reorganizing, to the horror and frustration of farmers in SA. This means some areas will walk away with less than 5mm.
Rain will begin to move through NSW into the east and southeast as well as much of VIC during Wednesday with rainfall intensity likely to pick up as the trough encounters a better moisture profile and begins to respond with a fresh middle level rain band. Some thunderstorms are also possible on the northwest flank of the rain band over southwest QLD.
Showers increasing for the SA central and southeast coasts with the approach of a deep low, that will bring gales and heavy showers, small hail and even some thunder to the region come Wednesday afternoon.
Fine weather returns to the southwest of the nation with a new high pressure drifting in. The high will be dominant over the region for the coming days. Local morning frost and areas of fog inland then sunshine.
And dry season taking a break! Isolated showers and thunderstorms on the forecast for parts of the NT and Cape York with moisture increasing and a trough nearby.
National Satellite Picture - Valid Wednesday 23rd of June 2021
A deep low working its way east with a large cloud band moving into the eastern states on Wednesday. The rainfall coverage has broken down overnight but will redevelop on Wednesday afternoon as the trough encounters more moisture over the east. Thunderstorms are possible over southwest QLD and northwest NSW today.
And here comes the low pressure system with widespread showers, thunderstorms and small hail in this swirl. Showers clearing from the east as the trough lifts into the eastern states so fine weather returning to the northern Ag areas this morning before rain returns on Thursday.
Temperatures - Valid Wednesday 23rd of June 2021
Spot the colder air this morning, with a deeper southerly flow pumping cold air on the western flank of the low over the western inland for a frosty start. More humidity over northern Australia leading to a warm start to the day. Foggy and cool over the southeast ahead of a cloudy cool day.
Pick the low pressure system and next front! Mild over eastern SA and western NSW with clouds and patchy rainfall. In the west, cold dry air pumping around the western flank of the low bringing colder air through the inland with showers for the coast.
Radar - Valid Wednesday 23rd of June 2021
Broad band of rain starting to establish through inland NSW, continuing over northeast SA and southeast NT. This is moving east today with moderate falls developing tonight west of the divide. Patchy light rainfall through VIC. A low pressure system can be seen west of Adelaide, bringing the next batch of showers and storms to southeast SA and much of VIC on Thursday.
Rainfall for the next 4 days - Valid Wednesday 23rd of June 2021
Rainfall moving east over the coming days with a new system developing for the west coast with the next front later in the weekend.
Rainfall for the next 10 days - Valid Wednesday 23rd of June 2021
Rain spreading from west to east next week with some moderate falls about the southern and eastern inland areas. Another modest cloud band bringing light rainfall to inland WA. Showers across the weekend over the NT with patchy rainfall possible about the inland of the Top End with a trough hanging on over the weekend. Heavy falls possible about southwest WA where frontal boundaries will continue to peak over the region next week.
GFS Rainfall 12z run - Rainfall for the next 10 days - Valid Wednesday 23rd of June 2021
CMC Rainfall 12z run - Rainfall for the next 10 days - Valid Wednesday 23rd of June 2021
Euro Rainfall 12z run - Rainfall for the next 10 days - Valid Wednesday 23rd of June 2021
Model Discussion and Analysis
GFS 12z run - 500mb/18000ft pressure pattern anomalies and flow
GFS 12z run - Surface pressure pattern and rainfall distribution.
Wednesday 23rd of June 2021
Deep upper low over the Bight bringing cold and wintry weather throughout the region. A strong upper high over the Tasman driving settled weather for the east coast for one more day. New high ridging into the southwest bringing further settled weather. Heights coming up over the north with more humidity.
Widespread rain over the southeast and eastern inland with moderate falls developing. A few showers along the SA coast increasing to rain over the southeast tonight and into Thursday with the approach of the low. Small hail and thunder possible. High pressure moving into the west bringing more settled conditions, but onshore winds continuing the showers over the south coast. Showers developing inland of Darwin this afternoon.
Thursday 24th of June 2021
Large upper low and trough moving eastwards knocking out the upper high into the Tasman Sea, but the low beginning to weaken away a bit through VIC. Upper high moving into the southwest edging east slowly. More humidity over the north of the nation.
Widespread showers over the southeast with moderate falls possibly heavy through SE SA and western VIC. Rain exiting NSW later in the day after another months worth falls through the southern and southeast inland of NSW. Showers and thunderstorms moving through QLD with mainly light falls. A few showers and a possible thunderstorm over the Top End with a trough hanging up over the region with low level moisture available. Fine weather over in the west with light winds and cold nights.
Friday 25th of June 2021
Large upper trough moving through the southeast with a few little low pressure systems on the feature as it moves east, bringing more cold weather and showery air to the southeast inland. A new high ridging east over the Bight. Upper high off the east coast slow moving and keeping the trough slow moving through the east on Friday.
Widespread showers with a thunderstorm over QLD moving eastwards slowly. A few showers and a possible thunderstorm over the NT clearing west through the day. Cold in the southeast with widespread showers with local hail and thunder, spreading into the southeast of NSW and ACT later. Showers easing over southeast SA. But fine weather continues for the west with warmer northerly winds developing.
Saturday 26th of June 2021
Upper trough slowly moving east and weakening as upper heights come up over the nation. A long wave trough beginning to move closer to the west coast of WA with showers developing at night with moderate falls. Heights coming down over the NT and a nice dry surge working its way northwest.
Rain hanging onto the QLD coast with a weak trough still hanging on over the region. High pressure broadening it's coverage over Australia with stable weather for a lot of the mainland. A weak front rolling through the southeast bringing another burst of showers for the southeast with moderate falls for some coastal areas later. Showers developing at night for the southwest of the nation as winds turn northwesterly later.
Sunday 27th of June 2021
Another long wave passing to the east of Tasmania. Heights coming up right across the nation with a flat ridge in place. Strong long wave passing over the southwest of the nation with cold wintry weather returning. Dry season conditions resuming transmission over northern Australia.
Rain developing in the west with moderate falls on the front, possibly some gusty thunderstorms too. Rain lifting off the east coast with cloud decreasing as the trough moves east. A front passing to the east of VIC seeing the high moving in to take up residence with showers clearing. A drier airmass over northern Australia.
Monday 28th of June 2021
Large upper high over the southeast of the nation controlling condtions over the region. A long wave trough with multiple frontal boundaries rolling through the southwest with wintry weather continuing. 588 upper high over the NT bringing up the temperatures throughout northern Australia but limiting humidity returning.
Showers developing on the east coast with light falls in onshore winds, as high pressure moves to the southeast of the nation. Warmer northerly winds developing over SA freshening in the west of the state lifting temperatures up. Windy with showers through the southwest of the nation with colder weather continuing with an enhanced shower activity with another front rolling through later.
Tuesday 29th of June 2021
A high amplitude pattern over the nation, very strong upper high over the Tasman keeping conditions settled in the east, but a strong long wave over the west with wintry weather continuing over the southwest of the nation, starting to move further east towards SA. 588 upper high continues to broaden over the tropical north with above average temperatures.
Broad cloud band developing from the northwest again with rain areas through the Pilbara down into the central and eastern interior approaching SA later. Showers along the east coast with light falls for the most part. Warm over the east after a cold start with a northerly flow freshening. Cold back in the southwest with showery periods continuing with local hail and thunderstorms.
Thursday 2nd of July 2021
Upper low over WA moving through to the southeast. 588 upper high over the NT with temperatures continuing to be above average and more humidity likely building in slack pressure pattern. Upper high over the east continuing to hold but breaking down. New high ridging into the southwest later.
Compact low bringing areas of rain with thunderstorms through eastern WA moving into SA with cloudy skies spreading across the southern parts of the nation. Dry elsewhere away from the east coast with showers easing as heights coming up over the eastern seaboard. Hot and humid over the north with cloud increasing over the northwest of the nation later.
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